Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x462af602f9e70174a8ef72ec9278106a098cc40c8ff41025e6ae0766c74c9bee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 3,952$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.16 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…c7fbbacked Yes | 2c | 3,192$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa229…0b73backed Yes | 2c | 2,461$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 2,344$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.41 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 7c | 2,019$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.9 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,794$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -77%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,221$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…0df8backed Yes | 6c | 1,107$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 9c | 829.71$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.45 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 768.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 3c | 759.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 8c | 719.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 2c | 706.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8092…b8a2backed Yes | 5c | 704.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…98b4backed Yes | 5c | 695.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 14c | 636$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.61 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe316…1766backed Yes | 6c | 617.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa349…a150backed Yes | 5c | 588.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd049…aa90backed Yes | 4c | 532.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 528.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 509.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 2c | 506.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354a…8e81backed Yes | 11c | 500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 2c | 495$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ce…728abacked Yes | 2c | 446.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 440.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 20c | 436.84$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.95 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e2…dbc6backed Yes | 5c | 433.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a4…60dabacked Yes | 12c | 396.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe107…eef0backed Yes | 5c | 394.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -84%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed6f…10abbacked Yes | 6c | 366.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf6…77d8backed Yes | 11c | 345.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde54…444dbacked Yes | 12c | 300$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 7c | 280.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 6c | 264.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…f15bbacked Yes | 9c | 240.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb761…253abacked Yes | 7c | 227.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 5c | 220.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd151…0a8abacked Yes | 10c | 198.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…1081backed Yes | 7c | 166.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x845f…4fe9backed Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…6959backed Yes | 14c | 136.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…c5efbacked Yes | 13c | 119.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -67%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1a…b3b5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 80c | 57.18$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…648ebacked No | 66c | 15.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?this page
- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
- Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
- Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?Yes won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.