Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b23c2e3ee806915cc1186641d292acbc6b26d7a7746ee93c910b8b0c87d4bca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $442,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $442,615 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48f8…7febbacked No | 13c | 10,800$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,404 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8f…d61bbacked No | 35c | 10,407$3,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,607.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…9b1abacked No | 16c | 6,700$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2f…1a88backed No | 2c | 5,555$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 7c | 5,080$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.21 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 4,229$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.11 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 19c | 3,600$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb635…f0fdbacked Yes | 57c | 3,546$2,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,534.9 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.34per pick | 58cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…04f5backed No | 0c | 3,023$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 15c | 2,928$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.89 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9f…1981backed No | 14c | 2,349$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.11 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked No | 7c | 1,976$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…3313backed No | 1c | 1,971$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 3c | 1,831$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e92…dc30backed No | 1c | 1,831$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 1,672$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.18 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…4f20backed No | 1c | 1,517$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 1c | 1,483$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x289c…79bcbacked No | 1c | 1,476$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 63c | 1,395$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.66 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…6e7fbacked No | 1c | 1,266$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 12c | 1,188$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 15c | 1,060$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.63 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a22…9f35backed No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…6dffbacked No | 41c | 999.99$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6497…192fbacked Yes | 71c | 994.98$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x221c…d3c1backed Yes | 47c | 966.95$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.51 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 66c | 958$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed No | 1c | 865.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 64c | 863.34$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.1 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 52c | 782.85$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.17 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed No | 2c | 722.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 19c | 700.82$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.81 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 21c | 697.8$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.63 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 2c | 694.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 7c | 663.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 52c | 656.75$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.28 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 9c | 656.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed Yes | 48c | 625.33$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 612.95$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.85 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…213abacked Yes | 54c | 585.76$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 567.79$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.13 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…4f81backed No | 54c | 511.85$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -71%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf6…77d8backed Yes | 41c | 507.99$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.66 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 3c | 502.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 9c | 500$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec5…946abacked No | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 78c | 495$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.01 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7355…12efbacked Yes | 25c | 470.1$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.85 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…1555backed Yes | 48c | 429.27$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.93 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +107.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdab1…d307backed Yes | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…50b8backed No | 3c | 423.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bab…5fa0backed Yes | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 9c | 400$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 26c | 397.29$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.95 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 45c | 393.07$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.55 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 47c | 389.41$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.97 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 387.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 8c | 369.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 53c | 362.5$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.12 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf097…83bfbacked No | 4c | 345.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…d7dcbacked No | 5c | 344.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 6c | 339.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed Yes | 48c | 313.34$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 34c | 312.15$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.04 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 46c | 307.92$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.3 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3720…92d8backed No | 5c | 298.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 34c | 292.13$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.02 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9263…9872backed Yes | 61c | 289.63$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 23c | 275.89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.29 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 48c | 220$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.36 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 18c | 207.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…1f67backed Yes | 45c | 179.3$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.3 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…7040backed Yes | 56c | 177.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…d932backed No | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…1350backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354a…8e81backed Yes | 25c | 153.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.79 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d4…0a2fbacked No | 21c | 151$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa235…1b86backed Yes | 61c | 149.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84a…7af3backed No | 19c | 147$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 60c | 140$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…6959backed No | 47c | 136.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe316…1766backed No | 46c | 135.41$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 69c | 133.05$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8092…b8a2backed No | 34c | 132.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfffe…4e6cbacked No | 21c | 132$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…98b4backed No | 36c | 128.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe074…629bbacked Yes | 53c | 118.72$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2eb…14eebacked No | 46c | 112.51$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee1…e5f0backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb963…b478backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb1…2f98backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe14d…9865backed Yes | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 54c | 99.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x144e…a61cbacked No | 12c | 93.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa349…a150backed No | 41c | 88.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb95…0d2fbacked No | 44c | 86.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +63%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77fd…b6c8backed Yes | 79c | 77.45$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 36cpaid | +180.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa506…9088backed No | 21c | 71.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?this page
- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
- Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.