Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2a78c483df6515981a6d2b77230a7d0804104e7e198783729f25be0369a2c68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $348,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $348,843 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45a2…3c01backed Yes | 4c | 132,363$5,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,519.69 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes | 2c | 29,134$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.46 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes | 11c | 17,478$1,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,843.8 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…c7fbbacked Yes | 1c | 17,374$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes | 0c | 12,577$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -78%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49a6…7049backed Yes | 0c | 9,855$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,300$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 6,369$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d34…3406backed Yes | 14c | 5,733$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,544$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 4,274$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.79 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…67d4backed Yes | 15c | 3,824$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.62 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e5…02f0backed Yes | 1c | 3,720$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…4f65backed Yes | 2c | 3,056$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 4c | 3,039$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.15 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9f…1981backed Yes | 12c | 2,888$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.7 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…2bf1backed Yes | 30c | 2,482$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.57 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,439$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.31 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 2,355$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 2,322$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.09 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…e8c0backed Yes | 1c | 2,241$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,183$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.53 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d98…b9c9backed Yes | 14c | 2,164$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 8c | 1,961$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.22 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…4c79backed Yes | 4c | 1,959$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,883$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 1,875$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.75 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c40…3d64backed Yes | 1c | 1,850$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2739…b92dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,811$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,755$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed6…9ba1backed Yes | 1c | 1,701$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…f6fcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,522$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.31 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…18c6backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -79%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x174d…bcf8backed Yes | 1c | 1,437$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…c691backed Yes | 1c | 1,422$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d5…ede6backed Yes | 1c | 1,375$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 5c | 1,279$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 10c | 1,094$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.68 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc493…b8f3backed Yes | 8c | 1,055$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf6…77d8backed Yes | 29c | 1,055$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.69 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 21c | 1,034$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.63 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…30fabacked Yes | 9c | 1,029$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,021$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 5c | 999.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 8c | 987.8$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.21 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec5…946abacked Yes | 20c | 940.95$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a75…f655backed Yes | 8c | 900$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x716b…fd70backed Yes | 4c | 846$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 8c | 834.21$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.08 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…5c87backed Yes | 2c | 814.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8be7…a8debacked Yes | 4c | 788$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee91…093ebacked Yes | 14c | 780$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.41 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb469…760fbacked Yes | 1c | 765.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 8c | 762.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.04 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…6eedbacked Yes | 2c | 752.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…476dbacked Yes | 7c | 750$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 2c | 723.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 692.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 15c | 626.13$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.71 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…8be8backed Yes | 4c | 599$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…e75fbacked No | 72c | 534.54$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.85 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 4c | 525$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 15c | 490$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.73 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Yes | 34c | 471.99$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 4c | 463$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x836b…9f33backed Yes | 14c | 409.76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 38c | 400.39$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.12 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 7c | 389.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed Yes | 28c | 375$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe2…87c5backed Yes | 27c | 367.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe868…fd22backed Yes | 4c | 357$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 30c | 346.92$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.46 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea2…cfdebacked Yes | 5c | 326.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 15c | 280.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 275.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfed0…5d85backed Yes | 4c | 266$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe19e…adbfbacked Yes | 14c | 264.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9833…0b32backed Yes | 6c | 239$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 9c | 237.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 71c | 220$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 8c | 217.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 26c | 207.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4742…afe1backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3a…49cfbacked Yes | 36c | 194.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3332…89b6backed Yes | 7c | 193.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 17c | 192.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed Yes | 29c | 188.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe5…d852backed Yes | 6c | 176.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa349…a150backed Yes | 8c | 168.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c5…66e8backed Yes | 8c | 168.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cd…1afabacked Yes | 8c | 163.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2a52backed Yes | 8c | 156.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb01…b32dbacked No | 66c | 149.97$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 75c | 139.12$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…419abacked Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed6f…10abbacked No | 63c | 129.51$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?this page
- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
- Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?Yes won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.