AI · resolved market
Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat win the NOF1.ai competition?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed407beabd9d42d5d49a3b55237b636e966399d9d55c4209297070a0ecf0d696
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $347,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $322,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $347,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 459 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb78f…3a77backed Yes | 80c | 11,360$9,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,087.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…9262backed Yes | 80c | 7,211$5,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,753.31 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed Yes | 70c | 6,852$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 24c | 6,343$1,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,808.11 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 36c | 5,095$1,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,256.95 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02b1…c764backed Yes | 50c | 4,924$2,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,465.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49d…8ee0backed Yes | 55c | 4,252$2,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,328.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x295b…2e44backed Yes | 29c | 4,175$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45e…605fbacked Yes | 70c | 3,652$2,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,561 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes | 15c | 3,633$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4e…c06fbacked Yes | 7c | 3,518$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…d03dbacked Yes | 76c | 3,437$2,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,620.25 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 33c | 3,307$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,225.73 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…70a9backed No | 20c | 3,301$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,640.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +150%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 30c | 3,152$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,196.3 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae5…45e3backed No | 41c | 2,792$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,657.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…5758backed Yes | 24c | 2,783$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…eb16backed Yes | 22c | 2,735$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 20c | 2,730$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.96 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 35c | 2,653$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.33 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 31c | 2,515$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,725.11 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,400$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01af…0e92backed Yes | 42c | 2,390$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x277d…d08dbacked Yes | 31c | 2,370$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7130…c66fbacked Yes | 47c | 2,268$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.75 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9343…f024backed Yes | 11c | 2,233$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +207.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked No | 50c | 2,130$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,071$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…025abacked Yes | 66c | 1,977$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x561f…a932backed Yes | 47c | 1,917$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60f3…4b01backed Yes | 69c | 1,897$1,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,313.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 62c | 1,834$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,135.93 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 11c | 1,818$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 13cpaid | +104%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 11c | 1,818$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.19per pick | 13cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes | 23c | 1,735$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.08 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e84…1ab4backed Yes | 6c | 1,718$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…bf4dbacked Yes | 76c | 1,716$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,711$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…be96backed Yes | 15c | 1,704$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a94…d11fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,701$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x719c…e24fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,621$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 39c | 1,600$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.02 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x801e…00b3backed Yes | 31c | 1,570$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.42 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9dc…4d2fbacked Yes | 80c | 1,565$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,252.39 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 5c | 1,514$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4967…4292backed Yes | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +203%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4392…68c3backed Yes | 70c | 1,487$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…dfbebacked No | 36c | 1,456$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.52 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 6c | 1,450$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.95 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…4513backed Yes | 70c | 1,435$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f8…2f71backed Yes | 39c | 1,421$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…e932backed No | 25c | 1,368$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +618.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 68c | 1,356$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.14 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72eb…c36cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…1f97backed Yes | 66c | 1,316$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…5adabacked Yes | 74c | 1,290$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49f4…b900backed Yes | 79c | 1,262$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…fbfdbacked Yes | 32c | 1,232$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabc1…09ebbacked Yes | 58c | 1,127$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe474…16c2backed Yes | 78c | 1,122$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3067…b8e5backed Yes | 11c | 1,111$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee8b…6436backed Yes | 69c | 1,100$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 6c | 1,100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes | 71c | 1,100$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.28 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked Yes | 78c | 1,091$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.78 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…2876backed Yes | 6c | 1,084$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed No | 50c | 1,081$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.35 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…bbdbbacked Yes | 28c | 1,059$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 66c | 1,049$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.95 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 52c | 1,006$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.66 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4e…31cbbacked Yes | 69c | 1,000$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe966…12debacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb42…0b87backed Yes | 32c | 999.98$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed No | 65c | 999.98$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…a45dbacked No | 12c | 980$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ee…df72backed Yes | 60c | 949$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.86 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…7e47backed Yes | 63c | 932.99$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked No | 11c | 920.13$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.89 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +77%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 55c | 905.71$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.28 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf43…b321backed Yes | 67c | 904.77$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b4…efc6backed Yes | 45c | 881.8$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.33 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 7c | 879.26$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.8 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3c…434fbacked Yes | 68c | 872.73$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…ee5abacked Yes | 58c | 869.9$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…74f7backed Yes | 75c | 869.58$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa5…6292backed Yes | 40c | 866.79$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.66 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e3…f4a0backed Yes | 31c | 864.52$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca46…6387backed Yes | 78c | 830.53$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea9…10febacked Yes | 31c | 827.24$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd30…ad89backed Yes | 77c | 807.58$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 56c | 806.71$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.74 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No | 65c | 800$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -7.2wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 33c | 789.31$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.46 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ef…c822backed No | 35c | 784.92$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +183.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe231…4e3ebacked Yes | 63c | 750.93$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.83 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fd…95aebacked No | 35c | 740.96$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1dd…0a16backed Yes | 68c | 737.88$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Yes | 65c | 733.17$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.22 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -77%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 36c | 727.23$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.17 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat win the NOF1.ai competition?this page
- Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the NOF1.ai competition?Yes won
- Will Anthropic’s Claude 4.5 Sonnet win the NOF1.ai competition?No won
- Will Google’s Gemini 2.5 Pro win the NOF1.ai competition?No won
- Will OpenAI’s GPT 5 win the NOF1.ai competition?No won
- Will xAI’s Grok 4 win the NOF1.ai competition?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.