AI · resolved market
Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the NOF1.ai competition?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x411ed50e3ea1fee7d6f364d24458ac4888c0f65396c669fc344c81f954ec3045
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $230,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $228,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $230,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 285 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa20…9262backed Yes | 22c | 8,364$1,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,499.7 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…5758backed Yes | 27c | 7,515$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,514.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 20c | 6,591$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,248.03 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked No | 4c | 5,741$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9dc…4d2fbacked Yes | 26c | 5,529$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,089.23 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x295b…2e44backed Yes | 51c | 4,537$2,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,207.33 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…90c7backed Yes | 26c | 4,134$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,069.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 13c | 3,696$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,233.11 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed Yes | 13c | 3,218$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,810.62 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 56c | 3,198$1,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,804.85 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 74c | 3,171$2,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.46 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 8c | 3,079$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,821.24 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 24c | 3,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,280 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa5…6292backed Yes | 26c | 2,789$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,068.73 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1619…4b1ebacked Yes | 61c | 2,308$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 20c | 2,210$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,758.74 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…8862backed Yes | 34c | 2,090$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372.41 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…70a9backed No | 59c | 2,089$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +150%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 45c | 1,901$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.33 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…bf4dbacked Yes | 23c | 1,656$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafff…19b2backed Yes | 16c | 1,594$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,344.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 18c | 1,530$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.85 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 32c | 1,328$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.29 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…d03dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,309$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.71 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…6277backed Yes | 72c | 1,281$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 52c | 1,251$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.25 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 38c | 1,210$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.45 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 62c | 1,209$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.56 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…3e66backed Yes | 14c | 1,195$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…bbdbbacked Yes | 62c | 1,187$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…e932backed Yes | 10c | 1,180$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +618.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Yes | 31c | 1,129$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.08 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00cd…e53ebacked Yes | 45c | 1,084$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…1f97backed Yes | 46c | 1,076$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…0272backed Yes | 36c | 1,038$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e12…1c24backed Yes | 41c | 1,015$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.51 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x801e…00b3backed Yes | 18c | 1,003$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.79 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…ee5abacked Yes | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 4c | 1,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe005…14fdbacked Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked Yes | 9c | 961.27$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…f328backed Yes | 26c | 953.49$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf43…b321backed Yes | 33c | 930.14$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ee…df72backed Yes | 32c | 911.76$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.25 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…6a97backed Yes | 34c | 902.35$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551b…dfd1backed Yes | 29c | 886.92$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…9a2ebacked Yes | 40c | 875$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 35c | 864.49$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.06 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…73adbacked No | 6c | 851.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x650a…0f82backed Yes | 18c | 843.85$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +172.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe231…4e3ebacked Yes | 31c | 800$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.93 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 799.71$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.39 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 25c | 798.66$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.12 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes | 16c | 783.54$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.28 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9abbbacked Yes | 17c | 763.7$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +472.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 80c | 754.68$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.99 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked Yes | 26c | 739.64$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.08 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4827…6bb1backed Yes | 47c | 738.29$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcebf…9e38backed Yes | 34c | 734.06$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…06b0backed Yes | 42c | 715.18$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…470dbacked Yes | 27c | 707.83$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +186.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5def…1283backed Yes | 17c | 699.98$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.99 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 17c | 692.13$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.79 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25a7…65d2backed Yes | 17c | 665$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed Yes | 32c | 655.9$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7148…7c29backed Yes | 16c | 615.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +515.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 23c | 610$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.5 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67aa…b88cbacked Yes | 19c | 600$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aec…efb8backed Yes | 61c | 587.99$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11c…2874backed Yes | 16c | 550.9$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +208.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes | 23c | 544.24$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49a8…7153backed No | 7c | 536.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…f8a5backed Yes | 22c | 524.27$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9761…9070backed Yes | 51c | 506.74$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc520…e2c1backed Yes | 32c | 500.44$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 28c | 500$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked No | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9343…f024backed Yes | 11c | 488.02$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +207.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked Yes | 18c | 478.49$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.95 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +77%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e3…f4a0backed Yes | 22c | 467.27$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.33 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fd…95aebacked No | 32c | 464.09$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c7…7203backed Yes | 7c | 459.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +386.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e91…45a1backed Yes | 22c | 450$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf732…d078backed Yes | 53c | 439.17$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.73 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 70c | 434.99$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.87 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…4761backed No | 55c | 428.7$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…48c4backed Yes | 20c | 420.36$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…15bdbacked Yes | 8c | 419.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +503.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55f4…b800backed Yes | 18c | 416.58$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +448.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes | 38c | 413.11$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.33 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 12c | 412.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.34 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…2862backed Yes | 37c | 400$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +121%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfe…c61cbacked Yes | 25c | 397.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 68c | 394.11$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.68 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 22c | 392.02$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.63 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.62 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x991f…2dfabacked Yes | 25c | 374.13$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14cf…594ebacked Yes | 27c | 369.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb28c…be33backed Yes | 73c | 363.76$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…116fbacked Yes | 46c | 342.03$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.54 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the NOF1.ai competition?this page
- Will Anthropic’s Claude 4.5 Sonnet win the NOF1.ai competition?No won
- Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat win the NOF1.ai competition?No won
- Will Google’s Gemini 2.5 Pro win the NOF1.ai competition?No won
- Will OpenAI’s GPT 5 win the NOF1.ai competition?No won
- Will xAI’s Grok 4 win the NOF1.ai competition?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.