AI · resolved market
Will xAI’s Grok 4 win the NOF1.ai competition?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4887def103d4af65185c7fe6d01968b23dd75dbae259d6bb6576dfa5d30ed825
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $186,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $160,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ae8…5dc8backed Yes | 0c | 38,312$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…556dbacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…8523backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e74…6566backed Yes | 0c | 13,049$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 10,600$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.49 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7323…d0fcbacked Yes | 27c | 1,720$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,509$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 1,498$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.48 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5d…5b0cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,430$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 4c | 1,250$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 18c | 1,244$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.48 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6463…0351backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafff…19b2backed Yes | 34c | 1,028$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae9…b4aabacked Yes | 1c | 974.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5b…a718backed Yes | 32c | 927.03$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb62e…203cbacked Yes | 3c | 708.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked Yes | 27c | 691$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.26 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +77%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb12…6a49backed Yes | 6c | 670$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…1d86backed Yes | 3c | 669.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 532.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad27…270fbacked Yes | 4c | 506.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x959b…35d1backed Yes | 6c | 501.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 74c | 423$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.73 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…5758backed Yes | 23c | 420$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes | 11c | 368.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 68c | 350$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdb…9c5cbacked Yes | 28c | 344.04$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x788f…19bbbacked Yes | 6c | 339.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked Yes | 38c | 337$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.38 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0210…8e68backed Yes | 10c | 334.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61fe…ede5backed Yes | 30c | 333.78$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…07c9backed Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa09…1fbebacked Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 25c | 300$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabc1…09ebbacked Yes | 36c | 275.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed No | 67c | 271.43$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.48 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 71c | 264.61$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.73 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e3…f4a0backed No | 70c | 245$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 71c | 232.99$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.61 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02a…8edbbacked Yes | 22c | 225$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7294…1760backed Yes | 24c | 207$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 67c | 204.75$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 63c | 199.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f90…5b7ebacked Yes | 12c | 182.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 31c | 176$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe409…4c39backed Yes | 22c | 174.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…4bfdbacked Yes | 25c | 170$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 166.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7a…b2e4backed Yes | 6c | 162.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 72c | 153.06$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed No | 71c | 148.43$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 33c | 126.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…1377backed No | 78c | 125$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95df…8a52backed Yes | 41c | 123.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…9a22backed Yes | 31c | 117.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 70c | 114.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 23c | 111.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 13c | 102.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d82…4a87backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…df26backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2f…8d49backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3789…a703backed Yes | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e74…54e7backed Yes | 38c | 85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…48c4backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec7…077fbacked Yes | 29c | 69.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6642…75dbbacked Yes | 38c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9b…71f8backed Yes | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x716d…eaf2backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…64e1backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc93a…6b34backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…9e09backed Yes | 36c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6030…dc7abacked No | 72c | 27.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf58…d9bdbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659b…e53abacked No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will xAI’s Grok 4 win the NOF1.ai competition?this page
- Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the NOF1.ai competition?Yes won
- Will Anthropic’s Claude 4.5 Sonnet win the NOF1.ai competition?No won
- Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat win the NOF1.ai competition?No won
- Will Google’s Gemini 2.5 Pro win the NOF1.ai competition?No won
- Will OpenAI’s GPT 5 win the NOF1.ai competition?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.