TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Kings vs. Canadiens

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kingsof Kings, Canadiens
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,421,106
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,424,909

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,421,106 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 693 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6155…7ebbbacked Canadiens53c558,680$295,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295,794.5430%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Kings57c134,805$76,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,328.771,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Kings48c117,364$55,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,579.0730944.7%138 W · 171 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Kings47c110,507$51,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,565.142,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Kings47c108,515$51,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,446.288746%40 W · 47 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Canadiens49c100,000$48,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,7501,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Kings50c61,505$30,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,752.3215953.5%85 W · 74 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Kings50c49,470$24,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,734.784546.7%21 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Kings53c48,778$25,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,925.819548.4%46 W · 49 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Canadiens1c48,611$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.111,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kings48c44,156$21,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,054.651,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Kings47c42,868$20,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,547.172,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Canadiens47c38,438$18,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,065.8316656.6%94 W · 72 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Kings33c35,000$11,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,449.9642552.2%222 W · 203 L+25.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Canadiens48c33,893$16,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,268.673339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Canadiens50c29,990$14,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,99525449.2%125 W · 129 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9165…5b98backed Kings52c29,708$15,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,241.1511955.5%66 W · 53 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Canadiens50c27,269$13,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,728.730848.4%149 W · 159 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c81…e258backed Kings49c25,000$12,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,749.992657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Kings52c23,277$12,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,264.0157453.8%309 W · 265 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Kings47c21,174$10,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,116.6939047.9%187 W · 203 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Kings52c18,034$9,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,644.9261848.1%297 W · 321 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Canadiens48c16,433$7,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,887.9911352.2%59 W · 54 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8525…f152backed Canadiens48c16,000$7,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,6801450%7 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Canadiens51c15,241$7,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,775.161,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Kings52c14,193$7,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,770.9233151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x821d…0a01backed Canadiens48c13,948$6,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,694.9221652.3%113 W · 103 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Kings47c13,460$6,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,133.882043%353 W · 467 L-1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Canadiens60c12,745$7,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,632.126344.5%117 W · 146 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Canadiens67c11,860$7,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,946.4914538.6%56 W · 89 L-19.2wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-32.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Kings48c10,848$5,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,689.0488151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Canadiens48c10,777$5,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,184.041,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96e1…50aabacked Kings67c10,592$7,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,542.7310565.7%69 W · 36 L+15.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+35.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Canadiens51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,10086649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Kings50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,00031654.7%173 W · 143 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Canadiens51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,1007352.1%38 W · 35 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a89…2f26backed Kings49c8,995$4,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,587.4470547.7%336 W · 369 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Kings47c8,314$3,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,406.5821850.9%111 W · 107 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Canadiens50c8,256$4,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,128.065848.3%28 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Kings50c8,200$4,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,10027048.1%130 W · 140 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Canadiens30c8,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.991729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Canadiens50c7,903$3,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,951.2817744.6%79 W · 98 L-12.0wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Canadiens49c7,747$3,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,793.274650%23 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Kings52c7,692$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,692.3151452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Kings48c7,665$3,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,958.892848.5%450 W · 478 L+17.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Canadiens47c7,000$3,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,29019451.5%100 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Kings52c6,210$3,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,980.820147.8%96 W · 105 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Canadiens10c5,831$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.7741850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Kings47c5,300$2,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,804.8421755.3%120 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d6…86fdbacked Canadiens50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5006657.6%38 W · 28 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x50ff…2037backed Kings49c5,000$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5502937.9%11 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Canadiens47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,349.9930447.4%144 W · 160 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Kings52c4,808$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,307.695648.2%27 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd339…d3a1backed Kings49c4,791$2,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,428.763946.2%18 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Kings51c4,774$2,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,339.5452050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60d2…2be9backed Kings50c4,500$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Canadiens50c4,264$2,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,123.9254047.6%257 W · 283 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Kings48c4,138$1,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,140.581,02448.4%496 W · 528 L+1.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Canadiens36c4,102$1,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,467.370249%344 W · 358 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Canadiens51c4,000$2,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,02063249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Canadiens49c3,979$1,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,946.0787447%411 W · 463 L+3.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Canadiens51c3,922$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00029651.7%153 W · 143 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…93fcbacked Canadiens50c3,500$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,75012445.2%56 W · 68 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Kings52c3,499$1,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,672.0131148.2%150 W · 161 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed Kings52c3,316$1,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,591.836055%33 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Canadiens50c3,282$1,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,640.882955.2%16 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f6e…d52ebacked Kings50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5001442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x164f…deb3backed Canadiens50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50025446.5%118 W · 136 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Canadiens48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44011946.2%55 W · 64 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6aa1…b882backed Canadiens51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,530933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-30.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kings75c2,836$2,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.082,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Kings48c2,725$1,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,428.548549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56f6…9f57backed Canadiens41c2,531$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.9533848.8%165 W · 173 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8813…47e6backed Canadiens50c2,500$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Kings52c2,500$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,199.9913049.2%64 W · 66 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Canadiens5c2,492$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.3454418%98 W · 446 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed Kings52c2,297$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,107.135248.1%25 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Canadiens38c2,283$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.8711051.8%57 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Canadiens49c2,222$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.7775251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Kings59c2,202$1,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.7299638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1ec…6933backed Kings52c2,200$1,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,055.961752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e65…7bc1backed Canadiens51c2,100$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071850%4 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0f9…f569backed Kings49c2,100$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid+7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa089…6d33backed Canadiens51c2,059$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Kings51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98042847.2%202 W · 226 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x954e…927fbacked Canadiens50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00013946.8%65 W · 74 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Kings49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02025447.2%120 W · 134 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15fc…88dbbacked Canadiens51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f3…2dd5backed Canadiens51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcea…e87dbacked Canadiens50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001450%7 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x795b…21abbacked Canadiens49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf62…2904backed Kings50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked Kings53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9402227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.8wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-43.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2dd8…eb7bbacked Canadiens48c1,900$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.981855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Kings52c1,800$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86415448.1%74 W · 80 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7159…88f2backed Canadiens50c1,674$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7071…ebabbacked Canadiens50c1,672$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a6f…d3c2backed Canadiens50c1,672$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Kings52c1,670$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.661959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48cb…d0e7backed Kings51c1,641$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.182100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.