AI · resolved market
Apple Siri partnership with OpenAI/Anthropic before September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x225899ce24e91244bd96b1f984481d9c3a7522b98fa24e8aa3838f3a12a453b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 3,403$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 7c | 2,488$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 6c | 2,435$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.96 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8740…490dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,484$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc634…50d2backed Yes | 30c | 1,373$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ee…df72backed Yes | 8c | 1,287$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.91 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…4252backed Yes | 6c | 725.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…cec7backed Yes | 6c | 710$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 19c | 584.08$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.31 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc2…98a6backed No | 37c | 572.98$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…8ebbbacked Yes | 5c | 550$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +40%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a45…0876backed No | 70c | 421.98$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 5c | 388.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 24c | 384.68$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.79 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes | 14c | 322.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x894a…3d3cbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 218.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…90bcbacked Yes | 16c | 201.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked Yes | 25c | 183.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 72c | 155.48$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 26c | 133.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a2…eb8abacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…c2c2backed Yes | 24c | 105$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf810…e877backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf7…779bbacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd1…a18fbacked Yes | 36c | 98.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 63c | 95.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa7…37fbbacked Yes | 25c | 94.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 27c | 89.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62ad…2b10backed Yes | 16c | 88.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 14c | 72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 42c | 69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -77%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0582…90a7backed Yes | 16c | 68.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…7c6bbacked Yes | 20c | 53.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 27c | 42.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd75e…bc00backed Yes | 65c | 39.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked Yes | 48c | 37.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 72c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb823…1fc0backed No | 75c | 22.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabd0…0619backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8741…1ec4backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.