Us Politics · resolved market

Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09a23aa4ec92b93c09f45c55f9f5022b1d14e5f8690651460d4862f1762b0727

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 23, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $172,872
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $170,957

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,872 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 321 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x993c…6787backed No	71c	12,277$8,690 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,689.68	192	36.5%70 W · 122 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes	36c	11,334$4,034 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,299.35	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+1.5wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a5…9de7backed Yes	28c	11,272$3,101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,171.86	39	35.9%14 W · 25 L	+9.5wins	+0.24per pick	12cpaid	+185%equal weight	66+0.15 edge/pick
0xefc1…dfcdbacked No	79c	9,469$7,449 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,449.24	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-48%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No	3c	7,712$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.2	165	35.8%59 W · 106 L	+18.3wins	+0.11per pick	25cpaid	+86.2%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed No	65c	5,046$3,279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,278.75	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b8…545dbacked No	1c	4,920$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8cf2…3cf2backed No	79c	4,865$3,859 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,859.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.8wins	-0.59per pick	59cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14c3…bfb9backed Yes	35c	4,569$1,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,968.65	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed No	69c	4,563$3,131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,131.32	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-4.3wins	-0.19per pick	56cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2559…2032backed Yes	22c	4,000$900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,099.98	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.7wins	+0.84per pick	16cpaid	+604%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	23c	3,823$882 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,940.75	333	13.2%44 W · 289 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes	19c	3,534$657 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,877.89	236	39.4%93 W · 143 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb01…02e5backed Yes	47c	2,741$1,294 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,447.2	20	40%8 W · 12 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	-1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes	22c	2,368$531 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,836.62	48	50%24 W · 24 L	+9.1wins	+0.19per pick	31cpaid	+346.5%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked No	68c	2,148$1,459 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,458.74	65	40%26 W · 39 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…3ee3backed No	79c	2,000$1,580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,580	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	58cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes	33c	2,000$660 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,339.99	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	35c	1,698$586 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,111.97	40	27.5%11 W · 29 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	22cpaid	-15%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x63e2…5579backed Yes	35c	1,599$560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,039.42	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	70cpaid	+17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	21c	1,584$332 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,251.57	130	29.2%38 W · 92 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31cf…4cd0backed Yes	13c	1,535$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,334.77	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked No	74c	1,513$1,119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,119.03	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-2.6wins	-0.22per pick	64cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf396…ea64backed Yes	56c	1,034$580 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$453.81	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfb…86d5backed Yes	29c	1,023$293 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$730.6	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-2.6wins	-0.12per pick	31cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x49cb…3caabacked No	19c	1,000$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa03…2927backed Yes	15c	998.7$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$848.7	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+169%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x321e…c0f4backed No	65c	969.58$630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$630.23	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes	14c	930.85$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$802.93	336	27.4%92 W · 244 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No	78c	909$709 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$709.02	149	40.9%61 W · 88 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	20c	890.49$178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$712.6	1,136	6.3%72 W · 1,064 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No	77c	864.98$666 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$665.79	35	54.3%19 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6358…cc23backed Yes	13c	830$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$721.8	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+2.6wins	+0.26per pick	24cpaid	+157.4%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes	26c	830$219 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$611.3	196	38.8%76 W · 120 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8d6…0062backed Yes	36c	822.61$298 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$524.78	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes	19c	817$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$658.83	326	26.4%86 W · 240 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes	10c	798.62$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$718.76	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	14cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fef…0cc5backed Yes	31c	794.72$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$544.72	24	25%6 W · 18 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked Yes	29c	715.88$206 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$509.54	53	39.6%21 W · 32 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes	16c	700$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$589	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+4.0wins	+0.19per pick	38cpaid	+72.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked No	67c	694.11$468 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$467.99	63	54%34 W · 29 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb75e…1737backed Yes	29c	689.43$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$489.43	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.34per pick	16cpaid	+72.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	45c	684.84$307 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$377.36	963	19.8%191 W · 772 L	-32.4wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes	16c	676.26$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$568.68	184	25%46 W · 138 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb08a…c850backed No	72c	669.04$482 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$481.99	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5652…c7b4backed No	73c	656.02$481 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$481.32	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked No	73c	653.39$476 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$475.73	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-3.1wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked No	71c	600$428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$428	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	28cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb998…d9b2backed Yes	22c	589.15$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$459.15	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes	12c	587.17$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$514.4	187	25.1%47 W · 140 L	+10.5wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	-14%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x875e…e6b5backed No	5c	586.21$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.12	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-2.0wins	-0.14per pick	20cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x126d…cfc5backed Yes	12c	573$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$502.48	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.88per pick	12cpaid	+712.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No	79c	568.04$448 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$448.42	355	19.7%70 W · 285 L	-16.3wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x057d…4d1fbacked No	70c	540.26$377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376.54	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.2wins	-0.16per pick	45cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8962…4978backed Yes	20c	507.6$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$407.6	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes	32c	491.61$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$333.7	142	41.5%59 W · 83 L	+9.3wins	+0.07per pick	35cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes	20c	480.14$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$383.76	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed Yes	19c	457.89$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$370.89	85	44.7%38 W · 47 L	+4.6wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	+21%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9592…a8fdbacked No	66c	446.91$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.65	9	88.9%8 W · 1 L	+2.5wins	+0.28per pick	61cpaid	+72.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x338b…d67bbacked Yes	19c	423.53$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$343.53	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+1.3wins	+0.45per pick	22cpaid	+310.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4b0…8b95backed Yes	18c	422.22$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$346.22	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	+30.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes	21c	422$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$332	412	38.8%160 W · 252 L	+11.6wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes	31c	409.19$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$283.22	50	50%25 W · 25 L	+5.6wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+20%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes	22c	400$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$312.5	50	42%21 W · 29 L	+4.6wins	+0.09per pick	33cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c80…fec1backed No	65c	400$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-46.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed Yes	25c	400$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300	42	66.7%28 W · 14 L	+3.0wins	+0.07per pick	60cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe361…bf48backed Yes	22c	397.41$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$310.41	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbd2…59f0backed Yes	26c	388.43$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$288.43	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No	80c	366.27$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.24	115	29.6%34 W · 81 L	-5.8wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf245…1df4backed No	67c	349.54$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.59	39	35.9%14 W · 25 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ec3…93b9backed Yes	9c	344.36$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$312.24	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.22per pick	12cpaid	+257.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes	21c	344$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$272.01	49	34.7%17 W · 32 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	-18%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cd9…5203backed Yes	13c	343.59$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$298.59	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.87per pick	13cpaid	+663.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fd8…34d7backed Yes	34c	340.21$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$224.4	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.46per pick	54cpaid	+115.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6778…226abacked Yes	31c	327.9$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$226.25	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+3.9wins	+0.22per pick	45cpaid	+120.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfeff…59dabacked No	78c	318$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.04	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.78per pick	78cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed No	63c	316.33$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	+30.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9722…5304backed Yes	33c	305.71$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$205.71	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	37cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb96…6006backed No	75c	305.22$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.92	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	67cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c5e…9f27backed No	67c	302.84$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.9	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.67per pick	67cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e6…6fcbbacked Yes	33c	300.6$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$202.02	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+2.6wins	+0.26per pick	34cpaid	+106.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee8b…6436backed No	75c	300.04$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.8	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-2.7wins	-0.21per pick	67cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed Yes	13c	300$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$260	62	41.9%26 W · 36 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed No	66c	299.99$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.99	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	19c	298.02$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240.88	996	29.5%294 W · 702 L	-73.3wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2afd…d5abbacked No	7c	296.02$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38d6…d10abacked Yes	36c	294.25$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188.32	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+2.5wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+36.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x32ee…3d48backed Yes	25c	289.16$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$215.99	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+2.3wins	+0.33per pick	39cpaid	+468.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa2ee…4146backed Yes	34c	288.8$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$189.65	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.9wins	+0.63per pick	37cpaid	+170.2%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x44e6…9d9ebacked No	70c	272.4$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.13	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7f3…d536backed Yes	22c	268.21$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208.21	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+1.8wins	+0.26per pick	17cpaid	+115.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes	19c	260$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210	139	43.2%60 W · 79 L	+7.8wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f14…026ebacked No	77c	259.74$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.26per pick	76cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	19c	256.8$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$206.91	110	10%11 W · 99 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-32%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabf1…1730backed No	79c	251.76$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7bf6…22a9backed Yes	20c	244.91$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$195.29	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc53…71f2backed Yes	24c	244.12$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186.63	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.76per pick	24cpaid	+324.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7db2…3ce5backed Yes	35c	236.06$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153.94	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e5e…e60abacked Yes	36c	234.33$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150.23	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.15per pick	60cpaid	+46.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec85…8ba8backed Yes	21c	225$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$178.25	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event