TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Robert Downey Jr. be named in newly released Epstein files?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,755
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,898

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,755 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9acd…7841backed Yes10c1,152$115 inLost-$115.35140%0 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes3c748.77$24 inLost-$24.51428.5%12 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c361.9$29 inLost-$29.221,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf156…4dc3backed Yes15c333.33$50 inLost-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed Yes10c296$29 inLost-$293514.3%5 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x331e…1caabacked Yes30c167.53$50 inLost-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd42…a3fabacked Yes9c134.15$13 inLost-$12.7140%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes10c129.09$13 inLost-$13.3333618.5%62 W · 274 L-46.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x4014…a2edbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost-$101464.3%9 W · 5 L+6.0wins+0.43per pick21cpaid+1,100.9%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes27c74.07$20 inLost-$204837.5%18 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+27.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x63e2…5579backed No73c74.07$54 inWon+$20875%6 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf97a…cfe6backed Yes24c60.11$14 inLost-$14.37714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-50.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e52…0693backed Yes25c60$15 inLost-$14.731921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick28cpaid+25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No45c33.33$15 inWon+$18.3333627.4%92 W · 244 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No77c32.22$25 inWon+$7.416756.7%38 W · 29 L-7.5wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-17.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4ad7…81e0backed No79c29.99$24 inWon+$6.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c80…fec1backed No60c25$15 inWon+$10.05633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-46.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.