Us Politics · resolved market

Will Kevin Spacey be named in newly released Epstein files?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e124940ba6355efa1dbb878340b241a0f4f2e37bf7df594723adc5492df9640

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 22, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $15,615
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $15,221

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,615 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5172…0581backed No	4c	3,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	+96.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No	4c	1,750$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	111	21.6%24 W · 87 L	+11.4wins	+0.10per pick	11cpaid	+179.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No	4c	1,750$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	111	20.7%23 W · 88 L	+10.9wins	+0.10per pick	11cpaid	+212.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes	51c	943.84$480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$463.65	72	44.4%32 W · 40 L	+8.7wins	+0.12per pick	32cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes	14c	668$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$571.78	107	49.5%53 W · 54 L	+10.6wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+61.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x64c3…1fefbacked Yes	21c	485.87$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$385.87	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+2.8wins	+0.69per pick	31cpaid	+255.7%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No	42c	402.66$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.16	184	45.1%83 W · 101 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x689c…f9adbacked No	3c	368.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	15c	254.08$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216.67	130	29.2%38 W · 92 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes	8c	252$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$231.86	556	18.5%103 W · 453 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x410c…b808backed Yes	10c	249.06$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$224.06	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+3.1wins	+0.28per pick	26cpaid	+366.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes	21c	231.25$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$183	36	52.8%19 W · 17 L	+5.4wins	+0.15per pick	38cpaid	+29.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes	20c	200$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160	115	41.7%48 W · 67 L	+7.0wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c27…1555backed No	78c	140$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.2	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-6.4wins	-0.24per pick	67cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0xc52c…6d91backed Yes	14c	80$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.8	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+74.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a9…837fbacked Yes	20c	59.09$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.09	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+2.0wins	+0.39per pick	21cpaid	+318.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x351c…9470backed Yes	22c	49.98$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.98	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.7wins	+0.57per pick	43cpaid	+175.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Kevin Spacey be named in newly released Epstein files?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event