Us Politics · resolved market

Will Kirsten Gillibrand be named in newly released Epstein files?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5160f3be9575bead67f8ef9e36521dab55d259da6029d68991cc16575549633

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $9,724
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $9,401

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,724 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x993c…6787backed No	75c	486.11$367 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.1	192	36.5%70 W · 122 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	13c	379.78$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.25	1,136	6.3%72 W · 1,064 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3d…2467backed No	80c	375.16$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.16	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+2.6wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c2a…83eebacked Yes	10c	254.1$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.73	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2592…839abacked Yes	18c	224.61$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.17	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.13per pick	21cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x917d…ca77backed Yes	30c	223.69$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.58	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xffb8…b577backed No	78c	223.34$174 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.53	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.20per pick	34cpaid	-81.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x908e…2291backed Yes	20c	223.34$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-2.4wins	-0.22per pick	31cpaid	-83.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	16c	220.97$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.24	49	0%0 W · 49 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes	18c	200$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.72	326	26.4%86 W · 240 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf97a…cfe6backed Yes	15c	184.34$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.58	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-50.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes	25c	173.38$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.5	336	27.4%92 W · 244 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb4…e56fbacked Yes	52c	134.33$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e31…454dbacked No	73c	126.52$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.57	36	50%18 W · 18 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…0220backed Yes	22c	119.98$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.84	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	-3.5wins	-0.11per pick	29cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x757a…0e81backed Yes	35c	100.07$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-4.1wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.92	145	28.3%41 W · 104 L	+11.0wins	+0.08per pick	21cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	20c	88.7$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.14	336	18.5%62 W · 274 L	-46.5wins	-0.14per pick	32cpaid	-60%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x49d7…1635backed No	16c	76.75$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.1	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.8wins	+0.30per pick	53cpaid	+99.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes	24c	65.37$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.76	58	34.5%20 W · 38 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x153b…65d8backed No	76c	42.48$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.25	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	77cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes	26c	40$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.53	39	23.1%9 W · 30 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+29.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba1f…e0debacked No	70c	37.46$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.28	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.12per pick	45cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe598…a0a8backed No	34c	34.54$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.8	36	63.9%23 W · 13 L	+3.9wins	+0.11per pick	53cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	70c	30$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.97	963	19.8%191 W · 772 L	-32.4wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc669…53eabacked No	78c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.63	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.18per pick	56cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x65d9…34d6backed Yes	41c	30$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.7wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No	67c	27.5$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.99	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b6c…5ab5backed No	80c	15.52$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.18	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.20per pick	80cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Kirsten Gillibrand be named in newly released Epstein files?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event