Us Politics · resolved market

Will Alan Dershowitz be named in newly released Epstein files?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98617ea3ab21e225f0e9d57afd067c357c6454293fef0ec458f8ecd2986b3c61

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 22, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $15,886
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $16,805

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,886 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4e25…d7a7backed No	2c	3,813$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.75	176	33%58 W · 118 L	-5.9wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed No	64c	1,586$1,013 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,012.67	192	36.5%70 W · 122 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No	1c	1,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	114	19.3%22 W · 92 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	27c	1,269$343 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$926	130	29.2%38 W · 92 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	71c	1,007$711 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$711.08	696	34.9%243 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed No	75c	588.39$441 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$441	51	58.8%30 W · 21 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes	44c	440$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$246.4	150	32.7%49 W · 101 L	+7.1wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No	74c	425$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.15	100	55%55 W · 45 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No	65c	425$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.25	52	40.4%21 W · 31 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes	31c	386.88$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265.25	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No	67c	231.96$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.41	412	38.8%160 W · 252 L	+11.6wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes	38c	216.66$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.33	147	42.9%63 W · 84 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+48.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	32c	203.69$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$139.34	996	29.5%294 W · 702 L	-73.3wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes	34c	168.62$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.51	125	33.6%42 W · 83 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes	17c	152.93$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126.93	165	44.8%74 W · 91 L	+10.9wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	+30.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked No	65c	140.5$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.28	83	55.4%46 W · 37 L	+7.1wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+19%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd535…fa67backed Yes	30c	133.85$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.74	46	30.4%14 W · 32 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96e0…b648backed No	61c	112.16$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.42	45	44.4%20 W · 25 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes	44c	100$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56	128	39.8%51 W · 77 L	+5.4wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x825e…904fbacked No	69c	86.67$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.86	54	38.9%21 W · 33 L	-5.7wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5c27…1555backed No	69c	82.24$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.75	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-6.4wins	-0.24per pick	67cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0xe6ec…1dadbacked No	62c	78$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.62	59	61%36 W · 23 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	59cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3499…2858backed Yes	74c	70.47$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.15	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	70cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No	69c	60$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.4	126	31.7%40 W · 86 L	-8.7wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	68c	60$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.8	567	33.2%188 W · 379 L	-40.9wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x85c9…8beabacked No	69c	55.67$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.41	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-3.5wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbadb…379bbacked No	74c	54.19$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.74per pick	74cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f50…1fb6backed No	69c	50$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.5	47	51.1%24 W · 23 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes	31c	45.3$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.36	185	16.2%30 W · 155 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No	39c	43.4$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.99	365	27.1%99 W · 266 L	-12.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed No	58c	37.15$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.55	114	28.1%32 W · 82 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No	33c	35.16$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.74	336	27.4%92 W · 244 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a49…7447backed No	68c	35.03$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.88	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-3.0wins	-0.10per pick	39cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c03…12b2backed Yes	38c	35$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.7	62	35.5%22 W · 40 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf4f…526fbacked No	66c	30.3$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-2.4wins	-0.26per pick	60cpaid	-42%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd45…aaf5backed No	66c	30.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-4.3wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0xbcc5…2276backed No	67c	29.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.9wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No	63c	28.07$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.68	252	41.7%105 W · 147 L	-17.2wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa6df…baa2backed No	77c	25.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	-4.4wins	-0.14per pick	53cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No	67c	22.15$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.84	375	33.3%125 W · 250 L	-17.1wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked No	71c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-2.9wins	-0.72per pick	72cpaid	-100%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x300d…6427backed No	64c	15.63$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.64per pick	64cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Alan Dershowitz be named in newly released Epstein files?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event