TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Shevchenkoof Shevchenko, Weili
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,850,142
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,965,068

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,850,142 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,296 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcfaa…2813backed Weili45c752,436$336,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336,267.263036.7%11 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-34.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Shevchenko55c226,116$124,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101,984.63751.4%19 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Weili45c200,000$90,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89,999.961471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Weili43c191,497$83,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83,169.9829151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Shevchenko54c158,923$86,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72,693.215244.2%23 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Shevchenko55c129,329$70,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,399.8335253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Shevchenko55c125,300$68,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,384.921968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+30.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Shevchenko55c113,531$62,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,127.657853.8%42 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Shevchenko55c110,288$60,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,732.4719154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Shevchenko55c105,078$57,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,285.16451.6%33 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Weili44c104,707$45,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,951.185950.8%30 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Weili32c92,638$29,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,245.977841%32 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bff…ffbebacked Shevchenko56c92,262$51,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,805.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Shevchenko56c79,464$44,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,964.134245.2%19 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Shevchenko56c60,342$33,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,712.276346%29 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8628…6f0bbacked Weili47c50,000$23,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,500955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Shevchenko57c47,617$27,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,551.64540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Shevchenko56c47,170$26,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,876.643043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Shevchenko55c45,468$24,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,605.761844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Shevchenko56c42,000$23,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,499.9116049.4%79 W · 81 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d9…717bbacked Shevchenko56c39,327$21,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,451.533158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Shevchenko55c38,638$21,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,235.044835.4%17 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8605…750fbacked Weili45c32,620$14,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,755.39650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Weili44c31,766$13,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,994.713039.2%51 W · 79 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Shevchenko56c31,600$17,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,813.381250%6 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Shevchenko55c27,500$15,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,37537152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b5d…f8cbbacked Shevchenko56c25,707$14,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,311.09366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+40.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked Weili8c24,995$2,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,109.73737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked Shevchenko56c23,500$13,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,339.997545.3%34 W · 41 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1308…562cbacked Weili44c22,703$9,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,989.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Shevchenko55c22,088$12,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,977.362060%12 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x00bf…3a0ebacked Weili46c21,509$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Shevchenko57c20,000$11,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,599.95475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+48%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x36e8…deb6backed Weili18c19,492$3,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,42920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d96…443ebacked Weili45c16,667$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,50060%0 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9353…4229backed Weili46c16,304$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,5001127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-56%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc701…f932backed Shevchenko56c15,848$8,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,914.51785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick64cpaid+32.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Weili41c15,374$6,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,302.637233.3%24 W · 48 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Shevchenko58c14,452$8,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,133.4920954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Weili45c13,366$6,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,011.8716951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6b6…f090backed Shevchenko57c12,500$7,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,3752100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick66cpaid+55.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x132a…abe8backed Shevchenko56c12,495$6,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,497.823234.4%11 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Shevchenko56c12,408$6,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,502.1621044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Shevchenko57c12,281$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,280.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd33…c006backed Weili30c12,228$3,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,631.99333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-35.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f4d…6055backed Shevchenko56c11,700$6,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1882536%9 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-35.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf915…388fbacked Weili44c11,364$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd372…f278backed Weili45c11,333$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,099.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb373…c8b0backed Weili45c11,106$4,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,997.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2ab…f2c3backed Weili45c11,089$4,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9631250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b6…b5abbacked Weili4c10,266$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb6a…f116backed Shevchenko57c10,202$5,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,433.491861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+23.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8c…9390backed Weili45c10,000$4,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5206953.6%37 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x575a…bba6backed Weili11c10,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1001637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Shevchenko56c10,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,4002100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+66.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Weili44c9,999$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,399.55825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-60.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e1a…9732backed Shevchenko57c9,649$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,149.12633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-48.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Weili12c9,139$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,116.334040%16 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac0d…b006backed Weili45c9,091$4,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,088.481656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Shevchenko56c8,929$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,928.572733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Shevchenko56c8,869$4,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,882.36666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+82.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc08b…def4backed Shevchenko56c8,800$4,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,871.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7ee…4e39backed Shevchenko57c8,772$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,771.93250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Shevchenko56c8,766$4,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,856.892100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+111.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8474…2511backed Shevchenko55c8,000$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,600560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ba4…c08bbacked Weili8c8,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6402445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Weili1c8,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805012%6 W · 44 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick7cpaid+272.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c3d…5d4cbacked Weili42c8,000$3,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,359.9690%0 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbcff…9527backed Weili46c7,784$3,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,580.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf20…fff1backed Weili45c7,696$3,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,485.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Weili44c7,500$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,299.992254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1013…87d5backed Shevchenko56c7,143$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,142.86771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb44…e977backed Shevchenko56c7,137$3,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,148.65757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x279f…5698backed Weili42c6,920$2,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,906.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7824…3302backed Shevchenko57c6,915$3,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,973.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4ad…8338backed Shevchenko55c6,718$3,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,023.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37f0…62f0backed Weili45c6,715$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc106…8686backed Weili45c6,701$3,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,015.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22ed…002bbacked Shevchenko56c6,654$3,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,927.753943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Weili44c6,500$2,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,86030039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2aa…deecbacked Weili44c6,452$2,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,818.981428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.26per pick55cpaid-57.9%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x88b2…df60backed Weili35c6,351$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Shevchenko55c6,315$3,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,838.9617055.3%94 W · 76 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Weili8c6,191$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.9910522.9%24 W · 81 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked Shevchenko80c6,164$4,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250.561369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick65cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddd…3d9abacked Weili44c5,920$2,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,614.89148.4%44 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Weili45c5,744$2,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5851729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0aaa…77b7backed Weili44c5,669$2,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,494.52147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Shevchenko57c5,574$3,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,377.73633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aec…1158backed Weili45c5,556$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Weili43c5,555$2,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,388.6528849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Shevchenko54c5,500$2,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,519.9817752%92 W · 85 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce24…12a3backed Shevchenko55c5,412$2,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,435.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61d3…4a9bbacked Weili45c5,400$2,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,43010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Weili4c5,363$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.7326352.1%137 W · 126 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+14.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x56c5…dbcfbacked Weili46c5,300$2,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,414.95250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Weili10c5,168$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.1737754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Shevchenko55c5,150$2,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,317.516745.5%76 W · 91 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x614b…bee6backed Weili20c5,105$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Shevchenko56c5,020$2,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2093740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.