UFC · resolved market
O/U 4.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6abdda82cb5f4d0c7fc911d731ef91e9142438e4d5045df202ed895f046a191
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 32c | 3,609$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.79 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 68c | 3,399$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.26 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 69c | 718$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.17 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Under | 33c | 536.36$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Under | 35c | 400$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Under | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Under | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Under | 31c | 293$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Over | 71c | 283.1$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.1 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Over | 60c | 235$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Over | 74c | 202.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Under | 30c | 202$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Over | 70c | 196.97$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 57 | 75.4%43 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Under | 30c | 190$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Under | 30c | 155$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…ebfebacked Over | 69c | 98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Over | 70c | 93$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb736…1946backed Over | 69c | 85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…2c48backed Over | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Under | 31c | 76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd26c…fc57backed Over | 70c | 74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Under | 27c | 71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Over | 70c | 67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa9…7d07backed Over | 66c | 58.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Under | 23c | 58.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Over | 70c | 56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Over | 70c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…ca38backed Over | 69c | 54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6191…e505backed Over | 69c | 53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d2…dc9bbacked Over | 70c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Over | 68c | 51.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Under | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…1ed1backed Over | 73c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5f…99d3backed Over | 69c | 46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 60cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…fcb4backed Over | 69c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Under | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…e7c2backed Under | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed Over | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…dde9backed Over | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…c747backed Over | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ab…b38dbacked Over | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 4.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)Shevchenko won
- Will Valentina Shevchenko win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Zhang Weili win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.