UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55a4e625055301bcac56c88692c61464f19c499567d2aa3a0015b81fee6c4431
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Yes | 67c | 6,773$4,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,244.17 | 57 | 75.4%43 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 33c | 5,684$1,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,904.2 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed No | 37c | 1,028$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.8 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Yes | 63c | 782.25$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.43 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…2239backed No | 34c | 731.1$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ead…cf47backed No | 36c | 536.69$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd9…e34cbacked No | 55c | 360.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 66c | 354.35$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.27 | 367 | 55.3%203 W · 164 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a5…d82abacked Yes | 67c | 294.28$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…208dbacked No | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9945…1ef5backed No | 39c | 257.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…0246backed No | 34c | 238$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed No | 32c | 222$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked No | 32c | 207$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e22…f532backed No | 36c | 191.67$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 9c | 186.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 17c | 186.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked No | 34c | 176.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 66c | 176$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 35c | 175$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed No | 32c | 158$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…6dffbacked Yes | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cd…161fbacked Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac9…a742backed No | 34c | 120.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 11c | 113.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.16 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +291.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed No | 36c | 108.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 283 | 33.2%94 W · 189 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…0b63backed No | 35c | 106.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e5…1d48backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 66c | 97.89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…7097backed Yes | 68c | 85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked Yes | 68c | 84$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Yes | 68c | 76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Yes | 68c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 66c | 73.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5f…2429backed No | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 53cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…e42abacked Yes | 62c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed No | 36c | 64.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…3a9fbacked Yes | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…5c9dbacked No | 33c | 60.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.35per pick | 44cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 33c | 59.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a56…6f86backed No | 34c | 58.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a09…4a9ebacked Yes | 69c | 52.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…304cbacked Yes | 68c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…15eabacked Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x593a…57b1backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked Yes | 68c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79e3…d1febacked Yes | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…9c8fbacked Yes | 68c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93db…e431backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…cfa6backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…2c0bbacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x934a…9096backed Yes | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e02…c5f2backed Yes | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…ebfebacked Yes | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…8b3abacked Yes | 66c | 18.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…f41fbacked Yes | 62c | 18.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Yes | 63c | 18.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…cbf7backed Yes | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)Shevchenko won
- Will Valentina Shevchenko win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Zhang Weili win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.