Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f8783bdabdd500dc401caddd12fea4bfae91543a8ea4458fc38e0539ffd3cb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,839,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,619,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,839,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 4,034 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e55…0b45backed Yes | 3c | 967,251$27,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,724.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…ba82backed Yes | 3c | 308,111$9,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,986.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 8c | 193,832$14,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,624.85 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 10c | 147,695$14,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,505.41 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Yes | 34c | 121,790$40,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,951.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 48c | 116,589$55,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55,472.9 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf20…fff1backed Yes | 7c | 110,126$7,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,276.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9333…bcedbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4e…7196backed Yes | 8c | 93,498$7,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,616.86 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6adc…bebabacked Yes | 4c | 70,487$3,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,152.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +440.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed Yes | 6c | 61,973$3,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,958.68 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a7…65f5backed Yes | 5c | 58,160$2,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,767.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 7c | 55,264$3,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,712.19 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 9c | 47,703$4,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,142.89 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87bf…755fbacked Yes | 6c | 45,000$2,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,892.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf3…6908backed Yes | 10c | 43,720$4,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,196.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 46c | 43,366$20,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,074.66 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4b…889abacked Yes | 7c | 43,247$2,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,968.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed No | 41c | 41,717$17,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,551.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…bbd1backed Yes | 1c | 39,771$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 2c | 38,209$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.67 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4458…1be5backed Yes | 3c | 35,584$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…8c14backed Yes | 7c | 34,671$2,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,264.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes | 54c | 33,384$18,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,092.62 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fd…1873backed Yes | 3c | 32,205$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 6c | 32,000$1,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,963.31 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…7f19backed Yes | 4c | 31,944$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.71 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7830…bc55backed Yes | 1c | 31,887$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1639…07f0backed Yes | 11c | 30,674$3,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,469.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x388a…e87cbacked Yes | 3c | 30,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…60afbacked No | 59c | 29,086$17,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,883.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4648…5361backed Yes | 5c | 27,070$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 2c | 27,043$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.35 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes | 14c | 26,831$3,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,703.16 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 5c | 26,607$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,382.17 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a9…4cbdbacked Yes | 12c | 26,306$3,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe899…0899backed Yes | 32c | 25,138$7,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,962.16 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 7c | 24,853$1,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,677.97 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 1c | 23,857$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.34 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 15c | 23,314$3,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,562.89 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8acf…22e4backed Yes | 5c | 22,195$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 8c | 22,000$1,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,798.06 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…bf33backed No | 73c | 21,937$16,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,853.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 77c | 21,249$16,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,946.11 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…87a0backed No | 56c | 20,982$11,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,232.07 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9056…c143backed Yes | 2c | 20,555$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked Yes | 5c | 20,321$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5af…51c8backed Yes | 66c | 20,302$13,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,342.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 5c | 20,189$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.19 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…1f74backed Yes | 2c | 20,108$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.53 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a79…b1a8backed No | 58c | 20,000$11,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,406.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 15c | 20,000$3,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,009.16 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked Yes | 10c | 19,879$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…2c21backed Yes | 25c | 19,854$4,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,949.08 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5f…65c8backed Yes | 3c | 18,893$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…94cdbacked Yes | 24c | 18,859$4,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,587.35 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked Yes | 6c | 18,802$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.92 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 26c | 18,775$4,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,946.13 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c9…7afcbacked Yes | 5c | 18,388$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…422abacked Yes | 30c | 18,315$5,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,463.65 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd16a…7691backed Yes | 60c | 18,112$10,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,876.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe352…f259backed Yes | 8c | 18,000$1,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389.32 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…5403backed Yes | 62c | 17,145$10,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,595.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 21c | 16,662$3,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,436.25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed No | 40c | 15,792$6,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,421.47 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda62…3e53backed Yes | 3c | 15,680$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1a…b29fbacked Yes | 4c | 15,568$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 8c | 14,895$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.45 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes | 33c | 13,841$4,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,608.77 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8c…9390backed Yes | 7c | 13,801$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 61c | 13,503$8,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,248.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f9…4960backed Yes | 7c | 13,400$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b9…4ed0backed Yes | 1c | 13,344$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb570…811fbacked Yes | 8c | 13,215$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 30c | 13,066$3,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,970.26 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4e…9ddcbacked No | 42c | 13,015$5,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,613.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…82d6backed Yes | 4c | 12,848$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bf…a760backed Yes | 4c | 12,671$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 8c | 12,659$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.98 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3367…906ebacked Yes | 27c | 12,500$3,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,364.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c8…faa8backed Yes | 4c | 12,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x840f…48e4backed No | 40c | 12,211$4,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,320.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfc…288cbacked Yes | 49c | 12,173$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Yes | 12c | 12,172$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,443.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…2a28backed Yes | 63c | 11,898$7,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,463.37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e71…7f61backed Yes | 7c | 11,811$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e0…7b80backed Yes | 7c | 11,573$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…965abacked Yes | 26c | 11,404$2,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,964.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc6…5ccabacked Yes | 7c | 11,324$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x616a…6104backed No | 44c | 11,316$5,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,311.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cea…4eccbacked Yes | 47c | 11,284$5,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,294.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd2…2925backed Yes | 8c | 11,234$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.63 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf5…9055backed Yes | 12c | 11,228$1,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92fd…7c39backed Yes | 3c | 11,073$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…e887backed Yes | 2c | 11,001$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.67 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 52c | 10,900$5,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,656.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 7c | 10,813$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.5 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…d510backed Yes | 11c | 10,806$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6224…c89bbacked Yes | 7c | 10,805$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…640fbacked Yes | 2c | 10,768$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?this page
- Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 15-18No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 19-22?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end before October 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.