Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8581d02dbdcd59fac4439c0df7d9174ed27d37e993647a423da36872f4d0a3c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,673,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,602,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,673,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 996 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a96…022fbacked Yes | 0c | 333,169$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb736…9118backed Yes | 2c | 227,045$3,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,993.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf3…6908backed Yes | 0c | 149,321$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.32 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26a8…61f9backed Yes | 3c | 145,263$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a5…98d0backed Yes | 1c | 100,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 4c | 86,032$3,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,126.82 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…bfbebacked Yes | 0c | 73,682$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3efd…0defbacked Yes | 0c | 72,336$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13ba…7876backed Yes | 2c | 67,816$1,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,524.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd710…e2cabacked Yes | 1c | 66,775$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2968…ce4cbacked Yes | 2c | 60,279$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.58 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +145.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09a3…ab99backed Yes | 2c | 57,000$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +645.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1394…91f5backed Yes | 10c | 44,985$4,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,305.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…b399backed Yes | 2c | 44,389$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 12c | 43,821$5,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,072.33 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c2…ce86backed Yes | 2c | 38,812$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5c…7d29backed Yes | 3c | 35,825$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 35,461$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.82 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6720…177cbacked Yes | 1c | 35,176$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 13c | 35,138$4,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,479.29 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7496…3962backed Yes | 2c | 33,528$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58e…8ee4backed Yes | 1c | 30,124$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be4…01adbacked Yes | 1c | 28,229$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf88e…0bf3backed Yes | 3c | 28,000$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77fd…e951backed Yes | 1c | 27,969$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9abe…b9f1backed Yes | 4c | 27,642$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…9452backed Yes | 3c | 26,000$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6957…ae82backed Yes | 3c | 25,731$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 24,857$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.89 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6b…8115backed Yes | 0c | 24,250$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4648…5361backed Yes | 5c | 23,241$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.43 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c2…0ee9backed Yes | 3c | 23,096$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…96cabacked Yes | 9c | 22,560$2,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,025.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5273…d975backed Yes | 2c | 21,810$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6977…394abacked Yes | 3c | 21,767$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…9860backed Yes | 16c | 21,581$3,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,446.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd634…ea9fbacked Yes | 4c | 21,466$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed Yes | 6c | 20,630$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,317.83 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes | 1c | 20,000$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.94 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8652…3ce4backed Yes | 0c | 19,879$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d19…84ddbacked Yes | 8c | 19,879$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe12…93a1backed Yes | 3c | 18,343$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 18,248$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.34 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 9c | 17,955$1,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,653.88 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd0…a14ebacked Yes | 2c | 17,616$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed Yes | 3c | 16,846$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x210d…a85cbacked Yes | 6c | 16,698$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…4539backed Yes | 3c | 16,488$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb05e…b4c7backed Yes | 0c | 15,876$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dc…aa10backed Yes | 4c | 15,000$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x345e…1f62backed Yes | 2c | 15,000$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x527c…e862backed Yes | 2c | 14,990$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.22 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x178c…5ac6backed Yes | 3c | 14,703$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.52 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…3b5ebacked Yes | 2c | 14,320$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27a…e96abacked Yes | 1c | 13,790$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Yes | 15c | 13,005$1,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,951 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc923…4a9abacked Yes | 2c | 12,963$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9156…9464backed Yes | 3c | 12,927$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.61 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eec…e535backed Yes | 3c | 12,637$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +321.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…a784backed Yes | 4c | 12,557$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf499…f612backed Yes | 1c | 12,207$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…b3aebacked Yes | 11c | 12,189$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…8715backed Yes | 1c | 11,050$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed Yes | 6c | 10,822$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.12 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…f087backed Yes | 4c | 10,367$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe12a…67efbacked No | 79c | 10,196$8,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,135.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88cb…2c20backed Yes | 1c | 10,173$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac88…9b35backed Yes | 4c | 10,157$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc374…46f4backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd67…fb31backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7791…af80backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x769f…5993backed Yes | 29c | 9,800$2,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,822.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 13c | 9,800$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.19 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…0710backed Yes | 16c | 9,676$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa091…aeadbacked Yes | 1c | 9,582$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…6824backed Yes | 5c | 9,154$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.9 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd518…a1b2backed Yes | 2c | 9,151$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…5facbacked Yes | 2c | 9,132$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81af…5884backed Yes | 2c | 9,087$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2417…292abacked Yes | 2c | 8,658$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1d…e3c3backed Yes | 7c | 8,500$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8822…0460backed Yes | 5c | 8,452$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 2c | 8,450$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.31 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe162…8a81backed Yes | 13c | 8,326$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x690c…8247backed Yes | 3c | 8,325$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…033bbacked Yes | 2c | 8,009$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…b3cabacked Yes | 6c | 8,004$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7905…3a92backed Yes | 2c | 7,972$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…c8f8backed Yes | 3c | 7,615$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…f848backed Yes | 2c | 7,551$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +987%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…5a1abacked Yes | 5c | 7,436$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63d6…bb94backed Yes | 8c | 7,354$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…1f3cbacked Yes | 3c | 7,341$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf20…f904backed Yes | 3c | 7,312$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b59…58e6backed Yes | 4c | 7,303$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d23…5294backed Yes | 1c | 7,038$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x169b…24e3backed Yes | 4c | 6,790$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92fd…7c39backed Yes | 1c | 6,443$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc002…77abbacked Yes | 3c | 6,347$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd2…2925backed Yes | 4c | 6,333$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.89 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?this page
- Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 15-18No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 19-22?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end before October 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.