Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55a469ea12fc89bf6b12c38fc764e35c05b4b520485adf4c8716d6369b38ad8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,422,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,545,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,422,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,777 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0190…c583backed No | 4c | 246,597$9,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,939 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ef…5232backed No | 4c | 111,290$4,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,390 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3dd…5300backed No | 2c | 79,854$1,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,805.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bc…c822backed No | 2c | 71,462$1,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,345.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +532.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…e887backed No | 2c | 63,397$1,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a7…65f5backed No | 4c | 63,114$2,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,414.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 7c | 55,149$3,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,693.31 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 1c | 53,796$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.32 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed No | 4c | 45,557$2,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,019.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 79c | 33,481$26,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,128 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe887…05cabacked No | 5c | 32,641$1,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 71c | 32,387$22,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,402.65 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb17c…dd51backed No | 0c | 32,215$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd430…8fbcbacked No | 3c | 31,465$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 5cpaid | +246.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 39c | 28,732$11,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,281.7 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fd…1873backed No | 1c | 25,000$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 67c | 24,369$16,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,119.83 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 37c | 24,327$9,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,293.09 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes | 56c | 23,265$13,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,125.2 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14b9…f378backed No | 2c | 23,182$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…6549backed No | 1c | 23,025$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 56c | 22,440$12,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,826.62 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4e…7196backed Yes | 22c | 19,328$4,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,984.78 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…a688backed No | 1c | 18,709$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…f083backed Yes | 57c | 18,500$10,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,940 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…bbd1backed No | 1c | 18,192$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…a614backed No | 5c | 17,370$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8758…fc2dbacked No | 5c | 16,863$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…5c72backed Yes | 70c | 16,499$11,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,886.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked No | 3c | 15,786$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba1…80e5backed No | 4c | 14,256$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…640fbacked No | 4c | 13,961$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103d…b4a9backed No | 1c | 13,657$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +165.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked No | 14c | 13,413$1,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,890.87 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…c7bfbacked No | 27c | 12,993$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,499.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…77f1backed Yes | 47c | 12,881$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,881.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 43c | 12,855$5,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,384.95 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf301…4ce1backed No | 4c | 12,448$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.95 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e69…c403backed No | 73c | 12,349$8,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,954.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4599…d638backed Yes | 33c | 12,292$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,291.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c2…ce86backed Yes | 36c | 12,259$4,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,847.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked Yes | 75c | 12,107$9,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,015.78 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f18…d980backed No | 3c | 11,792$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…d510backed No | 2c | 11,539$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.33 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…aec1backed No | 11c | 11,257$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,274.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 55c | 11,177$6,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,022.89 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c7…c0e2backed Yes | 56c | 11,162$6,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,955.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4553…25fbbacked No | 2c | 11,108$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…e8ecbacked No | 1c | 11,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3605…1ae1backed No | 4c | 10,970$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…65a5backed No | 5c | 10,875$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db1…46a4backed No | 2c | 10,815$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…d84ebacked No | 3c | 10,628$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…320fbacked Yes | 28c | 10,527$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,526.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 14cpaid | +257.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 35c | 10,280$3,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,645.68 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc012…6180backed No | 4c | 10,252$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x686c…1a39backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7791…af80backed No | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b82…bfdebacked No | 1c | 10,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -84%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40dd…e214backed No | 3c | 9,710$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…412abacked No | 7c | 9,428$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…1f74backed No | 2c | 9,193$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.27 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad32…e96bbacked No | 1c | 9,137$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae1…da16backed No | 3c | 8,989$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…554fbacked No | 5c | 8,759$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…8e1abacked No | 4c | 8,671$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52bf…97a2backed No | 4c | 8,500$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55dd…1cccbacked Yes | 29c | 8,391$2,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,977.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b7…e66dbacked No | 63c | 8,290$5,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,222.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…3061backed No | 13c | 8,268$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.87 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 8,200$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…c53fbacked No | 4c | 8,178$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -83%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…bb11backed No | 3c | 8,062$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked No | 2c | 8,005$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.1 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 1c | 7,992$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…55cebacked No | 4c | 7,954$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.17 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06df…3b05backed No | 15c | 7,848$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +459.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a9…9bf7backed No | 5c | 7,439$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2d…6130backed Yes | 52c | 7,373$3,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,550.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +279.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bdc…62ccbacked No | 1c | 7,280$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce29…b71bbacked No | 3c | 7,022$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.65 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd3…d500backed No | 5c | 6,957$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1766…5705backed Yes | 28c | 6,846$1,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,934.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c1…a672backed No | 1c | 6,823$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd469…db7cbacked No | 3c | 6,777$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa03a…a243backed No | 1c | 6,722$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.62per pick | 5cpaid | +925.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1d…1ae8backed No | 3c | 6,655$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 6cpaid | +720.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1591…a8e9backed No | 2c | 6,649$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044a…f35ebacked Yes | 75c | 6,500$4,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,605 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 3c | 6,480$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked No | 56c | 6,339$3,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,548.03 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…ef90backed No | 3c | 6,191$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71b…bb59backed Yes | 32c | 6,033$1,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,074.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Yes | 53c | 6,023$3,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,838.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3006…6f28backed No | 4c | 6,000$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +54%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd046…3432backed No | 3c | 6,000$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1881…28c0backed No | 2c | 6,000$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5af…97fcbacked No | 3c | 5,991$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…b3cabacked Yes | 40c | 5,968$2,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,599.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed4b…b58fbacked No | 1c | 5,967$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?this page
- Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 15-18No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 19-22?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end before October 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.