Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82ae2c86d5a8d8e98350c96a5ae151c1a6bd14e18df3370492231d1709c0a425
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $912,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $762,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $912,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 212 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 0c | 39,693$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.02 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…766bbacked Yes | 1c | 35,886$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…1d0abacked Yes | 0c | 31,460$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7698…9c54backed Yes | 0c | 24,860$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…55bdbacked Yes | 0c | 20,817$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4648…5361backed Yes | 5c | 19,432$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9c…73bebacked Yes | 2c | 18,509$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 13,125$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf2…45c5backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6853…dc08backed Yes | 2c | 9,804$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed Yes | 1c | 9,552$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.03 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5993…33a2backed Yes | 10c | 9,416$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21c3…de29backed Yes | 1c | 8,425$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 8,128$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.03 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc0…e50ebacked Yes | 6c | 7,709$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf20…f904backed Yes | 6c | 7,092$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed Yes | 5c | 7,000$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.5 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea9…6c85backed Yes | 2c | 6,429$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1509…94e0backed Yes | 1c | 6,243$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6350…785ebacked Yes | 5c | 5,751$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…3acbbacked Yes | 9c | 5,669$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.26 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40bc…79dbbacked Yes | 2c | 5,001$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked Yes | 11c | 5,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 7c | 5,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,946$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc045…73cabacked Yes | 4c | 4,889$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42c…942dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,730$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.95 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 3c | 4,560$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.41 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0990…3c05backed Yes | 8c | 3,321$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 5c | 3,018$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.28 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…68bcbacked Yes | 8c | 2,980$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5257…f27ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,943$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.04 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…108ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,781$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Yes | 2c | 2,704$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 3c | 2,494$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9064…18f5backed Yes | 0c | 2,393$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaab…1c1bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,376$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd1…26c3backed Yes | 5c | 2,199$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3806…f4c4backed Yes | 1c | 2,176$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x125b…e22bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,151$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Yes | 6c | 2,013$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8b…9b4dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaedf…c648backed Yes | 5c | 1,999$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Yes | 2c | 1,987$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 1,970$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.18 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x115e…23fbbacked Yes | 13c | 1,900$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bba…868dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,898$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda2e…6c83backed Yes | 10c | 1,831$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 9c | 1,712$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.82 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf74…b16cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,662$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…d9d8backed Yes | 7c | 1,528$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f4…e93dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x807a…0c50backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c83…ecebbacked Yes | 9c | 1,361$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,350$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…aa7ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,326$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ced…1a30backed Yes | 2c | 1,312$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25f…a9e9backed Yes | 8c | 1,297$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccd…f51bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,271$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 6c | 1,267$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.02 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f55…9ebdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,231$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…f3a5backed Yes | 4c | 1,137$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…e349backed Yes | 9c | 1,136$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c17…1850backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d1…10f0backed Yes | 7c | 1,069$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43d…e2f5backed Yes | 5c | 1,068$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…b4bfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,053$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x123c…f1bcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,032$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…5be0backed Yes | 5c | 1,028$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,022$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca7…72ecbacked Yes | 5c | 1,020$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…3436backed Yes | 8c | 1,007$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3491…0fccbacked Yes | 2c | 1,002$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x991b…f19abacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52bc…38f6backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67dc…a64bbacked Yes | 8c | 999.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd469…db7cbacked Yes | 7c | 990.81$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ba…288fbacked Yes | 2c | 918.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf445…df8abacked Yes | 10c | 916.5$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa224…5addbacked Yes | 12c | 911.28$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128c…ad12backed Yes | 2c | 910.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e3…bf65backed Yes | 11c | 881.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf49…286dbacked Yes | 6c | 866.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…1977backed Yes | 12c | 829.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 5c | 819$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…5226backed Yes | 9c | 808.24$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.74 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efe…fd3fbacked Yes | 12c | 800$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6edb…8c78backed Yes | 13c | 797.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168b…0acfbacked Yes | 2c | 756.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4c…16f8backed Yes | 5c | 751.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 7c | 714.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c90…aa32backed Yes | 12c | 702.58$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d5…bb27backed Yes | 15c | 682.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e0…ab1ebacked Yes | 16c | 625.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…1f44backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb364…0148backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…c468backed Yes | 5c | 580.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1f…8490backed Yes | 4c | 563.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa252…1e2cbacked Yes | 8c | 562.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30?this page
- Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 15-18No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 19-22?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end before October 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.