Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed414619d02a7ef323aab82bb305feeccbe89dc09e15cf2ef4da7bcd9ffc1879
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,061,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $761,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,061,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 262 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1247…e125backed Yes | 0c | 175,524$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdec…84d4backed Yes | 1c | 64,827$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40d…c72dbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 27,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…d65fbacked Yes | 0c | 22,902$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed Yes | 1c | 21,449$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.51 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaedf…c648backed Yes | 1c | 18,441$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 0c | 15,445$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3355…36f5backed Yes | 0c | 12,515$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…2556backed Yes | 0c | 12,512$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,070$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cae…f779backed Yes | 0c | 11,111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf74…b16cbacked Yes | 1c | 10,041$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdc…bca2backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 4cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b6…d233backed Yes | 1c | 9,997$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067d…e20bbacked Yes | 65c | 7,746$5,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,055 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…de65backed Yes | 1c | 7,677$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43d…e2f5backed Yes | 0c | 7,353$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefb…a0efbacked No | 68c | 7,276$4,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,294.34 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 73c | 6,035$4,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,605.7 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d01…7237backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1641…495dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0990…3c05backed Yes | 7c | 5,344$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 31c | 5,000$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.98 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…30a3backed Yes | 11c | 4,466$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 2c | 4,443$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.4 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…0805backed Yes | 12c | 4,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa224…5addbacked Yes | 4c | 3,950$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 9c | 3,794$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.5 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 11c | 3,306$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.68 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb57…0a7bbacked Yes | 34c | 3,150$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c83…ecebbacked Yes | 6c | 3,149$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…108ebacked Yes | 8c | 3,016$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660a…3e86backed Yes | 34c | 3,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed9…4a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,501$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x275b…b7f2backed Yes | 30c | 2,500$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaab…1c1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…aac3backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e92…6f16backed Yes | 1c | 2,365$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…1977backed Yes | 8c | 2,312$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked Yes | 23c | 2,113$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.82 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8408…bb06backed Yes | 5c | 2,113$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3153…85a9backed Yes | 8c | 1,976$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ac…9a05backed Yes | 1c | 1,637$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x125b…e22bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,609$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,602$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aee…54f4backed Yes | 6c | 1,584$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd469…db7cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,568$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60e…d332backed Yes | 15c | 1,531$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.68 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbf…6569backed Yes | 2c | 1,519$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbae…f0bbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,509$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc9…61a7backed Yes | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52bc…38f6backed Yes | 10c | 1,497$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 8c | 1,431$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.62 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 7c | 1,388$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.74 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,370$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda2e…6c83backed Yes | 10c | 1,337$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,325$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…6deabacked Yes | 38c | 1,316$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked Yes | 40c | 1,300$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 1,275$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.72 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4037…f8edbacked Yes | 2c | 1,267$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba32…deaabacked Yes | 7c | 1,250$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 34c | 1,243$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.9 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,223$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x111e…f237backed Yes | 16c | 1,195$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 6c | 1,106$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.35 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…257ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,021$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5257…f27ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,015$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x824c…6874backed Yes | 4c | 1,004$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8a…4327backed Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…0998backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67dc…a64bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed No | 59c | 949.97$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.99 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…6cc4backed No | 67c | 930.36$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.79 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbde…a050backed Yes | 11c | 890.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4500…e6e1backed Yes | 45c | 887.62$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb364…0148backed Yes | 6c | 853.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…66e7backed Yes | 11c | 759.58$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fc…eeaabacked Yes | 41c | 731.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…2e69backed Yes | 3c | 728.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b48…3f48backed Yes | 3c | 718.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…4c34backed Yes | 4c | 696.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…6104backed Yes | 8c | 650$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9510…9d19backed Yes | 20c | 646.83$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…bd4ebacked Yes | 16c | 644.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 22c | 636$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.08 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc215…aa47backed Yes | 10c | 625.2$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…677ebacked Yes | 7c | 611.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 7c | 604.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 66c | 599.56$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.13 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…cdf6backed Yes | 22c | 587.16$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 78c | 586.91$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.8 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 59c | 563.13$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.88 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2d…b41abacked Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 9c | 550$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 2c | 547.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26?this page
- Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 15-18No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 19-22?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end before October 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.