Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Government shutdown end October 15-18
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc5be9b4d8a1c0af85cbbe664af68c4b3a8f03967228e356ed238b566f25cd2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $426,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $365,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $426,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfd5…26e2backed Yes | 1c | 52,368$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 38,970$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…14c2backed Yes | 2c | 34,363$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2648…36a0backed Yes | 3c | 12,736$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…5390backed Yes | 1c | 11,219$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x668e…294dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d08…763ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,752$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…914abacked Yes | 2c | 7,924$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4685…f3dcbacked Yes | 4c | 7,687$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8940…ba3cbacked Yes | 4c | 5,866$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce92…3dfbbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c4…0a7dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,652$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…32f9backed Yes | 2c | 3,624$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,323$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2261…acdbbacked Yes | 0c | 3,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa5…6bc9backed Yes | 1c | 2,439$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,182$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x205c…b62abacked Yes | 2c | 1,925$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d29…1aadbacked Yes | 2c | 1,902$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x031b…babcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,493$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…6cc4backed No | 80c | 1,261$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.19 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2343…75a1backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,020$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa224…3769backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e01…2c8abacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked Yes | 21c | 999.98$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41fc…4d37backed Yes | 4c | 663.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…5389backed Yes | 2c | 617.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa9…42febacked Yes | 25c | 610.92$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad0…bda9backed Yes | 6c | 600$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 45c | 539.12$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.14 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe979…bff0backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 4c | 490.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadf9…cdc6backed Yes | 4c | 404.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed No | 79c | 316.35$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.35 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Yes | 12c | 299.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed Yes | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x750a…d86cbacked No | 79c | 219.73$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x295d…accebacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…340cbacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…7b85backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9966…abbdbacked Yes | 20c | 130$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…f3a5backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…62efbacked Yes | 22c | 104.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f57…bc71backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea8c…1619backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x318f…ed78backed No | 77c | 51.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…e9f8backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 78c | 35.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Government shutdown end October 15-18this page
- Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?Yes won
- Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 19-22?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3?No won
- Will the Government shutdown end before October 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.