TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

NFL · resolved market

Bears vs. Bengals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bearsof Bears, Bengals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,704,392
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,779,471

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,704,392 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 549 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed88…f3c4backed Bengals42c484,636$201,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,208.258344.6%37 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Bears58c121,344$70,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,751.2231240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Bears58c119,050$69,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,00110061%61 W · 39 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b8c…1556backed Bengals22c100,000$22,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,0002433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-39.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Bears59c73,643$43,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,204.1444652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Bears59c71,952$42,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,450.2422950.2%115 W · 114 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Bengals19c66,743$12,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,924.6320634.5%71 W · 135 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c1c…a0a4backed Bears59c52,566$31,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,552.062540%10 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Bears59c51,000$30,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,91024456.6%138 W · 106 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Bengals41c50,000$20,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,499.993348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Bears59c45,142$26,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,617.5533553.4%179 W · 156 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Bengals42c44,653$18,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,805.1886547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Bengals31c43,099$13,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,205.4447738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Bears58c41,772$24,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,544.0920755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Bengals41c32,000$13,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,122.9817647.7%84 W · 92 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Bengals41c30,000$12,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,30016051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Bengals4c29,147$1,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.1668446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Bears50c25,676$12,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,892.2220026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Bears62c21,645$13,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,280.0819235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Bears70c19,876$13,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,009.8741947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Bengals42c17,120$7,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,190.3716545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Bears54c16,027$8,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,435.761148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ab…f2c3backed Bengals54c15,000$8,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,029.113351.5%17 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Bengals38c13,933$5,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,307.0730043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Bengals1c12,500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1254515.6%7 W · 38 L+6.1wins+0.13per pick2cpaid+931.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bears58c10,000$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,20083147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x954e…927fbacked Bears58c10,000$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,199.98922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick50cpaid-56.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Bears39c9,847$3,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,972.4619645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc210…f0cabacked Bears59c9,224$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,823.662638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-28.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d85…228ebacked Bengals42c9,119$3,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,8303056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Bears67c9,000$6,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,97011252.7%59 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x383d…a9f2backed Bears59c9,000$5,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6906349.2%31 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Bears58c9,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8003633.3%12 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-42.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Bears61c7,767$4,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,054.6131056.8%176 W · 134 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Bears59c7,500$4,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,07514450%72 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Bengals41c6,901$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,850.314951%76 W · 73 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Bears48c6,816$3,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,553.718532.9%28 W · 57 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bengals35c6,790$2,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,344.0150242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Bears58c6,771$3,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,831.8111649.1%57 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa225…b903backed Bears27c6,768$1,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,924.071573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick53cpaid+38.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Bengals42c6,530$2,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,742.6219553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52d2…2280backed Bears61c6,522$3,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,546.95633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-43.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Bears60c6,100$3,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,469.8924351.4%125 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x797b…47fcbacked Bears58c5,517$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,317.14333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Bears59c5,085$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,084.755464.8%35 W · 19 L+6.4wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+32.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Bengals40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0008845.5%40 W · 48 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Bengals42c5,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1002653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…93fcbacked Bengals42c5,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,099.992161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+40.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bengals44c4,523$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,974.9427348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Bengals26c4,500$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,160.094628.3%13 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5821…92ccbacked Bengals41c4,373$1,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7934341.9%18 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Bears64c4,281$2,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,541.312138.8%47 W · 74 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bears58c4,000$2,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,68051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd339…d3a1backed Bengals42c4,000$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6801154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick36cpaid+47%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Bears58c4,000$2,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,68010434.6%36 W · 68 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Bengals6c3,498$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.671969.2%18 W · 178 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-67.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Bears54c3,479$1,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,588.6236246.7%169 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Bears58c3,448$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.1637350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Bengals1c3,420$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.21486.8%10 W · 138 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+296.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Bengals40c3,368$1,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347.3614342%60 W · 83 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Bears58c3,335$1,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,400.632050.9%163 W · 157 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Bears62c3,278$2,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,245.664747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Bengals1c3,216$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.52980%0 W · 98 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Bears58c3,180$1,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,346.653366.7%22 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Bears51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,469.9925744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Bengals1c2,998$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.374311.6%7 W · 424 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Bears64c2,955$1,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,05726547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Bears57c2,745$1,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,180.2530743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Bears60c2,592$1,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.654451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Bengals36c2,500$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91014438.9%56 W · 88 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Bears59c2,475$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.5822349.8%111 W · 112 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Bears57c2,250$1,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.51369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+42.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Bears66c2,213$1,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.4123244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Bears68c2,207$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.0931543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bears59c2,192$1,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.7253348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Bengals1c2,151$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.541013%3 W · 98 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Bears77c2,073$1,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.5460049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Bears50c2,038$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.22680.8%21 W · 5 L+5.5wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+37.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Bears57c2,030$1,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.534349.3%169 W · 174 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Bears59c2,000$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82011452.6%60 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9882…d3bdbacked Bears58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+213.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Bears57c2,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86015044.7%67 W · 83 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8523…1c9fbacked Bears46c2,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc787…4702backed Bengals43c2,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick32cpaid+150%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Bengals42c2,000$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83539242.6%167 W · 225 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb40…a284backed Bears58c1,997$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.3514443.8%63 W · 81 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe221…234dbacked Bengals74c1,964$1,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,453.19425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick67cpaid-65.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4238…58a6backed Bengals43c1,931$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.3330%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1e0…43d0backed Bears59c1,905$1,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.05475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick58cpaid+28.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0777…110ebacked Bengals42c1,905$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fab…1082backed Bengals43c1,840$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1199…0622backed Bengals43c1,755$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3445…7488backed Bengals46c1,739$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001650%8 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeec7…7de8backed Bears59c1,700$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.37450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1fef…3589backed Bears57c1,663$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Bengals43c1,638$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70014147.5%67 W · 74 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Bengals42c1,619$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68016344.8%73 W · 90 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Bears34c1,500$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.518044.4%80 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Bears49c1,500$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.9414926.2%39 W · 110 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Bears58c1,474$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.4441248.5%200 W · 212 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.