NFL · resolved market
Bears vs. Bengals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6059f90055603d5d41cddec29021d91614ac5398cb1a0aa4d6c641189578744
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bearsof Bears, Bengals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,704,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,779,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,704,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 549 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed88…f3c4backed Bengals | 42c | 484,636$201,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201,208.25 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Bears | 58c | 121,344$70,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,751.22 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Bears | 58c | 119,050$69,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,001 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…1556backed Bengals | 22c | 100,000$22,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,000 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Bears | 59c | 73,643$43,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,204.14 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Bears | 59c | 71,952$42,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,450.24 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Bengals | 19c | 66,743$12,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,924.63 | 206 | 34.5%71 W · 135 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…a0a4backed Bears | 59c | 52,566$31,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,552.06 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Bears | 59c | 51,000$30,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,910 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Bengals | 41c | 50,000$20,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,499.99 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Bears | 59c | 45,142$26,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,617.55 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bengals | 42c | 44,653$18,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,805.18 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Bengals | 31c | 43,099$13,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,205.44 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Bears | 58c | 41,772$24,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,544.09 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Bengals | 41c | 32,000$13,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,122.98 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Bengals | 41c | 30,000$12,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,300 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Bengals | 4c | 29,147$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.16 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Bears | 50c | 25,676$12,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,892.22 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Bears | 62c | 21,645$13,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,280.08 | 192 | 35.4%68 W · 124 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Bears | 70c | 19,876$13,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,009.87 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…ede4backed Bengals | 42c | 17,120$7,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,190.37 | 165 | 45.5%75 W · 90 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Bears | 54c | 16,027$8,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,435.7 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…f2c3backed Bengals | 54c | 15,000$8,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,029.11 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Bengals | 38c | 13,933$5,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,307.07 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Bengals | 1c | 12,500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 2cpaid | +931.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bears | 58c | 10,000$5,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,200 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x954e…927fbacked Bears | 58c | 10,000$5,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,199.98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Bears | 39c | 9,847$3,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,972.46 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…f0cabacked Bears | 59c | 9,224$5,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,823.66 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…228ebacked Bengals | 42c | 9,119$3,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,830 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae0f…f647backed Bears | 67c | 9,000$6,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,970 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x383d…a9f2backed Bears | 59c | 9,000$5,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,690 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Bears | 58c | 9,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,800 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Bears | 61c | 7,767$4,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,054.61 | 310 | 56.8%176 W · 134 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Bears | 59c | 7,500$4,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,075 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…8078backed Bengals | 41c | 6,901$2,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,850.3 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Bears | 48c | 6,816$3,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,553.71 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Bengals | 35c | 6,790$2,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,344.01 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Bears | 58c | 6,771$3,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,831.81 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa225…b903backed Bears | 27c | 6,768$1,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,924.07 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Bengals | 42c | 6,530$2,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,742.62 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d2…2280backed Bears | 61c | 6,522$3,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,546.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Bears | 60c | 6,100$3,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,469.89 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…47fcbacked Bears | 58c | 5,517$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,317.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Bears | 59c | 5,085$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,084.75 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Bengals | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Bengals | 42c | 5,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…93fcbacked Bengals | 42c | 5,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,099.99 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bengals | 44c | 4,523$1,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,974.94 | 273 | 48.7%133 W · 140 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Bengals | 26c | 4,500$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.09 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…92ccbacked Bengals | 41c | 4,373$1,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,793 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45d…a406backed Bears | 64c | 4,281$2,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,541.3 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bears | 58c | 4,000$2,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd339…d3a1backed Bengals | 42c | 4,000$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +47%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Bears | 58c | 4,000$2,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Bengals | 6c | 3,498$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.67 | 196 | 9.2%18 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Bears | 54c | 3,479$1,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,588.62 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Bears | 58c | 3,448$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,448.16 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Bengals | 1c | 3,420$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +296.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Bengals | 40c | 3,368$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,347.36 | 143 | 42%60 W · 83 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Bears | 58c | 3,335$1,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.6 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Bears | 62c | 3,278$2,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.6 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbce9…03e9backed Bengals | 1c | 3,216$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 98 | 0%0 W · 98 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…c4a7backed Bears | 58c | 3,180$1,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,346.65 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Bears | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,469.99 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Bengals | 1c | 2,998$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 431 | 1.6%7 W · 424 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Bears | 64c | 2,955$1,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,057 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Bears | 57c | 2,745$1,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.25 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bears | 60c | 2,592$1,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.6 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Bengals | 36c | 2,500$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Bears | 59c | 2,475$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.58 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Bears | 57c | 2,250$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Bears | 66c | 2,213$1,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.41 | 232 | 44.4%103 W · 129 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Bears | 68c | 2,207$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.09 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Bears | 59c | 2,192$1,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.72 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x519d…37a1backed Bengals | 1c | 2,151$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 101 | 3%3 W · 98 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -84%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Bears | 77c | 2,073$1,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.54 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…733ebacked Bears | 50c | 2,038$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.2 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Bears | 57c | 2,030$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.5 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Bears | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9882…d3bdbacked Bears | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +213.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Bears | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked Bears | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc787…4702backed Bengals | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 32cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Bengals | 42c | 2,000$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Bears | 58c | 1,997$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.35 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe221…234dbacked Bengals | 74c | 1,964$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,453.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4238…58a6backed Bengals | 43c | 1,931$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e0…43d0backed Bears | 59c | 1,905$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0777…110ebacked Bengals | 42c | 1,905$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…1082backed Bengals | 43c | 1,840$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1199…0622backed Bengals | 43c | 1,755$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3445…7488backed Bengals | 46c | 1,739$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…7de8backed Bears | 59c | 1,700$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fef…3589backed Bears | 57c | 1,663$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Bengals | 43c | 1,638$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Bengals | 42c | 1,619$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 163 | 44.8%73 W · 90 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Bears | 34c | 1,500$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.5 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Bears | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.94 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Bears | 58c | 1,474$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.44 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bears vs. Bengalsthis page
- Bears vs. Bengals: 1H O/U 26.5Over won
- Bears vs. Bengals: O/U 48.5Over won
- Bears vs. Bengals: O/U 50.5Over won
- Bears vs. Bengals: O/U 51.5Over won
- Bears vs. Bengals: O/U 52.5Over won
- Spread: Bears (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-2.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-3.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.