NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bears (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17b2be1dd7cbd365d5542a7e564317e9aa2a7f803a8577f1e4c391fc79fe8ca7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bearsof Bears, Bengals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bengals | 47c | 54,031$25,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,483.25 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Bears | 53c | 30,000$15,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,100 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0584…de3ebacked Bears | 54c | 18,442$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,442.35 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bengals | 46c | 11,618$5,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,306.92 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Bears | 52c | 11,395$5,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,469.42 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Bears | 53c | 10,770$5,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,061.81 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Bengals | 46c | 6,490$2,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,989.96 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bengals | 41c | 3,357$1,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,382.63 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Bears | 53c | 3,013$1,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,425.42 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Bengals | 48c | 2,084$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.32 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3006…ebd8backed Bengals | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Bears | 53c | 1,691$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.54 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42cd…d786backed Bears | 53c | 1,674$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Bears | 54c | 1,490$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.45 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff93…ca00backed Bengals | 47c | 1,387$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac8e…4341backed Bengals | 47c | 1,316$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Bengals | 46c | 1,268$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.69 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53e4…cf0cbacked Bears | 54c | 1,200$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…c142backed Bears | 53c | 1,148$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe98e…6ad2backed Bengals | 47c | 1,107$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…2b2dbacked Bears | 53c | 1,029$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Bengals | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec8…9a19backed Bengals | 47c | 940$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…52bfbacked Bears | 54c | 929.12$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.12 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…cda8backed Bears | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…d262backed Bears | 53c | 899$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.53 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Bengals | 48c | 835$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.8 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Bengals | 48c | 834$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.32 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3c…a7f8backed Bears | 54c | 800$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bengals | 46c | 751.04$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.48 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Bears | 59c | 592$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.12 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Bears | 55c | 547.88$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.88 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Bears | 55c | 436.36$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.36 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Bears | 53c | 418.87$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.87 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Bears | 52c | 416$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.68 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Bengals | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +7.3wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb498…2f1fbacked Bengals | 48c | 356.25$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8158…b34dbacked Bears | 53c | 354.72$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Bengals | 46c | 313.16$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.58 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Bengals | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Bears | 52c | 255.41$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.6 | 194 | 36.6%71 W · 123 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed Bears | 53c | 235$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.45 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed Bears | 53c | 226.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.42 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Bears | 54c | 217.78$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.18 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Bengals | 44c | 217.71$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.85 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bengals | 45c | 215.09$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.09 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Bengals | 47c | 214.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.04 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Bengals | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Bears | 52c | 208.33$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Bengals | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Bengals | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Bears | 53c | 167.95$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 173 | 59%102 W · 71 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Bears | 52c | 160$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Bengals | 37c | 160$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Bears | 53c | 132.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25b0…94ebbacked Bears | 52c | 128.85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.85 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9b…5722backed Bears | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Bengals | 47c | 111$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6c…3bfebacked Bengals | 48c | 106.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Bengals | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…d86bbacked Bears | 53c | 96.87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Bengals | 47c | 88.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Bears | 53c | 65.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Bears | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Bengals | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Bears | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…b033backed Bengals | 48c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Bengals | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…9e3bbacked Bears | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed21…a2a1backed Bears | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…8c00backed Bears | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93aa…9ababacked Bears | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae58…3f01backed Bengals | 48c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe247…5a9fbacked Bengals | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49e…58afbacked Bears | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Bengals | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Bears | 78c | 18.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bears (-2.5)this page
- Bears vs. BengalsBears won
- Bears vs. Bengals: 1H O/U 26.5Over won
- Bears vs. Bengals: O/U 48.5Over won
- Bears vs. Bengals: O/U 50.5Over won
- Bears vs. Bengals: O/U 51.5Over won
- Bears vs. Bengals: O/U 52.5Over won
- Spread: Bears (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-3.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.