NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bears (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedbc6dbfd35cafb35bb82d3f67891ec41987202aa1ca228439c08b112bfad46a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bearsof Bears, Bengals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c81…e258backed Bengals | 56c | 21,511$12,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,046.09 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Bears | 44c | 13,834$6,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,695.59 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Bengals | 51c | 12,814$6,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,592.59 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Bears | 44c | 11,710$5,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,550.02 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Bears | 48c | 8,061$3,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,191.46 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Bears | 44c | 6,547$2,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,666.32 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bengals | 55c | 6,337$3,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,516.14 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Bears | 50c | 2,950$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,465.03 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Bears | 50c | 2,600$1,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.9 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bengals | 55c | 2,234$1,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.34 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bengals | 56c | 1,068$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.37 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bears | 43c | 605$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.85 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Bengals | 56c | 580$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.06 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Bears | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 194 | 36.6%71 W · 123 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Bengals | 49c | 204$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +7.3wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5b…b993backed Bengals | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Bears | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Bengals | 56c | 125$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…501bbacked Bengals | 57c | 111$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Bengals | 44c | 103$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Bengals | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Bengals | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c88…5685backed Bears | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bengals | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bears | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bengals | 56c | 27.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Bengals | 55c | 22.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bears (-3.5)this page
- Bears vs. BengalsBears won
- Bears vs. Bengals: 1H O/U 26.5Over won
- Bears vs. Bengals: O/U 48.5Over won
- Bears vs. Bengals: O/U 50.5Over won
- Bears vs. Bengals: O/U 51.5Over won
- Bears vs. Bengals: O/U 52.5Over won
- Spread: Bears (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-2.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.