NFL · resolved market
Bears vs. Bengals: O/U 50.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1017d9f84180eee44c8aaafa59ac66120d5203953203faa9674d331e03f5f2df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Over | 54c | 49,490$26,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,656.34 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 46c | 22,078$10,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,155.91 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 20,670$9,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,502.31 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Under | 46c | 10,000$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,600 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 52c | 5,106$2,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,451.07 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 53c | 3,500$1,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,645 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 48c | 2,436$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.91 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 45c | 1,470$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.84 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 45c | 1,182$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.08 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Over | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Over | 54c | 742.34$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.48 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7628…b822backed Under | 47c | 614.01$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.58 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 51c | 312.79$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.67 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 49c | 263.54$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.41 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…35dcbacked Under | 50c | 241.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Over | 54c | 218$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.28 | 117 | 40.2%47 W · 70 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 45c | 201.58$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.71 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0521…cc4abacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 53c | 125$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…0a46backed Over | 54c | 43.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +59%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 45c | 37.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…f838backed Over | 54c | 35.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa18d…b16abacked Over | 54c | 34.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bears vs. Bengals: O/U 50.5this page
- Bears vs. BengalsBears won
- Bears vs. Bengals: 1H O/U 26.5Over won
- Bears vs. Bengals: O/U 48.5Over won
- Bears vs. Bengals: O/U 51.5Over won
- Bears vs. Bengals: O/U 52.5Over won
- Spread: Bears (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-2.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-3.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.