NFL · resolved market
Bears vs. Bengals: O/U 48.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb320f95c638ce18414d9e07475ebd58b88bd27abc4d9f15be38ace70d8e67190
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $344,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $344,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $344,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed Under | 44c | 343,446$152,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152,293.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Over | 55c | 150,000$82,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67,500 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 57c | 50,200$28,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,586 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 56c | 43,207$24,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,066.05 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Over | 56c | 30,000$16,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,200 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 56c | 25,000$14,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,000 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 56c | 18,572$10,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,218.69 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 56c | 12,388$6,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,450.5 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 55c | 8,955$4,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,014.58 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 56c | 3,750$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 55c | 600$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 57c | 342.13$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.34 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 61c | 125$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…ad57backed Over | 55c | 117.82$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 45c | 111$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 39c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Over | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Over | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb49e…58afbacked Over | 61c | 26.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 58c | 22.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bears vs. Bengals: O/U 48.5this page
- Bears vs. BengalsBears won
- Bears vs. Bengals: 1H O/U 26.5Over won
- Bears vs. Bengals: O/U 50.5Over won
- Bears vs. Bengals: O/U 51.5Over won
- Bears vs. Bengals: O/U 52.5Over won
- Spread: Bears (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-2.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-3.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.