NFL · resolved market
Bears vs. Bengals: O/U 51.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fa33f9dabeb5b5a3bade205004f90866a0b6940177eaea10f7e5fdb78c01724
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Under | 52c | 10,537$5,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,474.03 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Over | 47c | 8,018$3,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,249.53 | 206 | 34.5%71 W · 135 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 6,039$3,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,177.42 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 49c | 6,026$2,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,062.95 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Over | 48c | 4,724$2,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,456.67 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 4,481$2,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,280.32 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 48c | 4,465$2,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,320.88 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 49c | 4,069$1,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,083.76 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Over | 48c | 3,333$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,733.16 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…5019backed Under | 52c | 2,887$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Under | 51c | 2,500$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73ce…57b9backed Under | 51c | 2,400$1,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…da69backed Over | 49c | 2,300$1,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 52c | 1,925$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e6…2ad9backed Over | 49c | 1,427$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 53c | 1,376$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.28 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf09…88b3backed Under | 51c | 1,254$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x476a…db42backed Under | 51c | 537$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…e56fbacked Over | 49c | 364$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 47c | 313.86$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.35 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Under | 52c | 234.62$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 49c | 185$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 163.25$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.63 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 53c | 108.03$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde60…15f1backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e52…6577backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Over | 48c | 41.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 53c | 23.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec17…44bcbacked Over | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bears vs. Bengals: O/U 51.5this page
- Bears vs. BengalsBears won
- Bears vs. Bengals: 1H O/U 26.5Over won
- Bears vs. Bengals: O/U 48.5Over won
- Bears vs. Bengals: O/U 50.5Over won
- Bears vs. Bengals: O/U 52.5Over won
- Spread: Bears (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-2.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-3.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.