NFL · resolved market
Bears vs. Ravens
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79458e54226bf73452522bae8ca7469ef433bf3a9dc1d6c614b3ddb689d33042
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ravensof Bears, Ravens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,475,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,926,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,475,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 972 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed88…f3c4backed Bears | 43c | 1,004,325$431,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431,858.74 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb744…5210backed Ravens | 57c | 937,606$533,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403,830.47 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Ravens | 57c | 650,056$370,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279,524.07 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bears | 43c | 612,103$261,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261,474.5 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Bears | 42c | 388,086$162,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162,326.41 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…6b14backed Ravens | 57c | 175,000$99,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75,249.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Bears | 43c | 134,410$57,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,796.28 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e98…1f51backed Bears | 29c | 107,397$31,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,106.65 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Ravens | 62c | 98,372$61,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,156.51 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Ravens | 57c | 92,600$52,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,275.97 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Ravens | 56c | 75,000$42,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,699.93 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Bears | 11c | 72,373$8,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,057.06 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Ravens | 72c | 68,632$49,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,217.01 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Bears | 40c | 61,919$25,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,058.91 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Ravens | 63c | 58,479$37,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,346.1 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Ravens | 57c | 56,133$32,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,981.7 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Ravens | 57c | 50,663$29,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,648.27 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Ravens | 79c | 42,998$33,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,059.42 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Ravens | 56c | 40,000$22,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,599.96 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Ravens | 61c | 37,212$22,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,558.46 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Bears | 28c | 36,735$10,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,280.16 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Ravens | 80c | 30,285$24,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,113.32 | 192 | 35.4%68 W · 124 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Ravens | 72c | 30,000$21,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,299.97 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd123…d341backed Ravens | 69c | 28,018$19,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,635.85 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa74c…64a0backed Bears | 43c | 25,466$10,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,994.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45d…a406backed Ravens | 72c | 20,445$14,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,688.08 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Ravens | 72c | 20,000$14,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,600 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Ravens | 56c | 20,000$11,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,799.98 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…7679backed Bears | 42c | 18,004$7,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,570.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…e5c9backed Ravens | 58c | 18,000$10,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,560 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ae…0e0ebacked Bears | 43c | 18,000$7,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,740 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x591b…807cbacked Ravens | 58c | 18,000$10,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,559.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Bears | 27c | 17,534$4,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,793.69 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5646…3819backed Bears | 25c | 15,977$3,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,994.33 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Bears | 44c | 15,636$6,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,880 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -8.5wins | -0.29per pick | 50cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Ravens | 59c | 15,012$8,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,208.04 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Ravens | 56c | 15,000$8,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,524.99 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Ravens | 57c | 14,280$8,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,140.4 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb78…5206backed Bears | 35c | 13,816$4,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,783.35 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa6…bfb1backed Bears | 43c | 12,465$5,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,359.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…c3a6backed Ravens | 56c | 12,354$6,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,382.65 | 39 | 79.5%31 W · 8 L | +7.2wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Bears | 42c | 11,658$4,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,882.83 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe212…d5f4backed Bears | 60c | 11,615$7,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,001.39 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae0f…f647backed Bears | 44c | 11,364$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Ravens | 56c | 11,000$6,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,839.99 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Bears | 13c | 10,898$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,402.4 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f16…7ee1backed Ravens | 57c | 10,600$6,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,558 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c1…54b0backed Bears | 23c | 10,548$2,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,418.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86a3…33dbbacked Bears | 43c | 10,250$4,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,386.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…f867backed Ravens | 69c | 10,176$6,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,196.67 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Bears | 27c | 10,000$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,650 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Ravens | 68c | 10,000$6,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,199.99 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…5933backed Bears | 43c | 10,000$4,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,299.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Ravens | 60c | 9,990$6,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,957.99 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29da…1ff7backed Ravens | 58c | 9,600$5,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,032 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3461…4629backed Ravens | 79c | 9,156$7,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,902.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +319.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb515…f7f9backed Bears | 41c | 8,775$3,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,597.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…b9febacked Ravens | 57c | 8,772$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,771.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…9dbdbacked Bears | 42c | 8,012$3,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,365 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Ravens | 64c | 7,743$4,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,758.02 | 273 | 48.7%133 W · 140 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98c4…e889backed Bears | 44c | 7,700$3,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,388 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Ravens | 62c | 7,565$4,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,904.62 | 310 | 56.8%176 W · 134 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe916…4563backed Bears | 40c | 7,402$2,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,965 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +9.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e24…7f38backed Bears | 30c | 7,282$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +80%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bears | 42c | 7,000$2,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,910 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…4fdcbacked Bears | 29c | 6,897$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafe7…cf28backed Ravens | 58c | 6,851$3,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,877.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d32…4301backed Bears | 42c | 6,828$2,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,867.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…d974backed Bears | 44c | 6,818$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…e1c8backed Bears | 33c | 6,788$2,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,269 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x778a…ec9dbacked Ravens | 59c | 6,780$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,779.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…5effbacked Ravens | 75c | 6,667$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,666.67 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…1660backed Bears | 36c | 6,336$2,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,256 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Ravens | 72c | 6,303$4,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,764.84 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a3…0848backed Bears | 53c | 6,071$3,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,237.3 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…228ebacked Ravens | 59c | 5,932$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,432.2 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2c15backed Bears | 63c | 5,927$3,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,737.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…f0cabacked Bears | 44c | 5,925$2,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,607 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Bears | 26c | 5,868$1,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,551.92 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a3…1c90backed Bears | 43c | 5,823$2,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,504 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Bears | 42c | 5,276$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Ravens | 77c | 5,219$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd339…d3a1backed Ravens | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +47%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…e96ebacked Ravens | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,199.99 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Ravens | 57c | 4,853$2,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,086.8 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Bears | 42c | 4,747$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…aa44backed Bears | 25c | 4,703$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.7 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Bears | 38c | 4,500$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,710 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…c9b4backed Bears | 45c | 4,446$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 181 | 40.9%74 W · 107 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b88…9856backed Bears | 42c | 4,314$1,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,811.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…327fbacked Bears | 58c | 4,284$2,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,484.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Bears | 26c | 4,263$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.36 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…1548backed Ravens | 70c | 4,094$2,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.03 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Ravens | 60c | 4,029$2,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,596.69 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae5…53c8backed Bears | 34c | 4,001$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,347.19 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Bears | 27c | 4,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.09 | 212 | 27.8%59 W · 153 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ae…7b92backed Ravens | 57c | 4,000$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…0f55backed Bears | 26c | 3,800$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Ravens | 56c | 3,643$2,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,585.84 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…d61ebacked Bears | 50c | 3,600$1,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,794 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bears vs. Ravensthis page
- Bears vs. Ravens: 1H MoneylineRavens won
- Bears vs. Ravens: O/U 44.5Over won
- Bears vs. Ravens: O/U 45.5Over won
- Bears vs. Ravens: O/U 46.5Under won
- Bears vs. Ravens: O/U 47.5Under won
- Bears vs. Ravens: O/U 48.5Under won
- Bears vs. Ravens: O/U 49.5Under won
- Bears vs. Ravens: O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Ravens (-1.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-2.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-3.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-6.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-7.5)Ravens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.