TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Bears vs. Ravens

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ravensof Bears, Ravens
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,475,684
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,926,431

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,475,684 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 972 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed88…f3c4backed Bears43c1,004,325$431,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431,858.748344.6%37 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Ravens57c937,606$533,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403,830.4717041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Ravens57c650,056$370,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279,524.073540%14 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+71.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Bears43c612,103$261,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261,474.586547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Bears42c388,086$162,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162,326.4147738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3657…6b14backed Ravens57c175,000$99,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,249.81942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-28.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Bears43c134,410$57,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,796.2812352.8%65 W · 58 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e98…1f51backed Bears29c107,397$31,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,106.653652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Ravens62c98,372$61,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,156.5125956.8%147 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Ravens57c92,600$52,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,275.9710061%61 W · 39 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Ravens56c75,000$42,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,699.9317647.7%84 W · 92 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Bears11c72,373$8,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,057.0620026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Ravens72c68,632$49,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,217.0119553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Bears40c61,919$25,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,058.9133553.4%179 W · 156 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Ravens63c58,479$37,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,346.144652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Ravens57c56,133$32,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,981.724456.6%138 W · 106 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Ravens57c50,663$29,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,648.2761148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Ravens79c42,998$33,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,059.4268446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed Ravens56c40,000$22,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,599.9617348%83 W · 90 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Ravens61c37,212$22,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,558.4630043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Bears28c36,735$10,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,280.163548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-16.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Ravens80c30,285$24,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,113.3219235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Ravens72c30,000$21,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,299.9718435.9%66 W · 118 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd123…d341backed Ravens69c28,018$19,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,635.851580%12 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+42.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa74c…64a0backed Bears43c25,466$10,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,994.71333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Ravens72c20,445$14,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,688.0812138.8%47 W · 74 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Ravens72c20,000$14,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,60012144.6%54 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Ravens56c20,000$11,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,799.9830743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x051d…7679backed Bears42c18,004$7,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,570.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb870…e5c9backed Ravens58c18,000$10,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,5601100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5ae…0e0ebacked Bears43c18,000$7,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,74010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x591b…807cbacked Ravens58c18,000$10,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,559.982100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Bears27c17,534$4,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,793.6922950.2%115 W · 114 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5646…3819backed Bears25c15,977$3,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,994.337035.7%25 W · 45 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9af…6371backed Bears44c15,636$6,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,8802920.7%6 W · 23 L-8.5wins-0.29per pick50cpaid-57.6%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Ravens59c15,012$8,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,208.0414252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Ravens56c15,000$8,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,524.9914450%72 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Ravens57c14,280$8,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,140.410650.9%54 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb78…5206backed Bears35c13,816$4,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,783.351323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-38.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6fa6…bfb1backed Bears43c12,465$5,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,359.99475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+61.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed Ravens56c12,354$6,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,382.653979.5%31 W · 8 L+7.2wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+31.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Bears42c11,658$4,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,882.8317648.9%86 W · 90 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe212…d5f4backed Bears60c11,615$7,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,001.396850%34 W · 34 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Bears44c11,364$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00011252.7%59 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Ravens56c11,000$6,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,839.9983147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Bears13c10,898$1,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,402.441947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f16…7ee1backed Ravens57c10,600$6,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,558366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24c1…54b0backed Bears23c10,548$2,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,418.270%0 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x86a3…33dbbacked Bears43c10,250$4,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,386.52944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Ravens69c10,176$6,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,196.672941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Bears27c10,000$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,65024351.4%125 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Ravens68c10,000$6,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,199.9913843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ba…5933backed Bears43c10,000$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,299.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Ravens60c9,990$6,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,957.9950242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29da…1ff7backed Ravens58c9,600$5,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0322100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick62cpaid+63.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3461…4629backed Ravens79c9,156$7,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,902.913100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+319.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb515…f7f9backed Bears41c8,775$3,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,597.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…b9febacked Ravens57c8,772$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,771.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked Bears42c8,012$3,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3652638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+25.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Ravens64c7,743$4,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,758.0227348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98c4…e889backed Bears44c7,700$3,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,388520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-64.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Ravens62c7,565$4,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,904.6231056.8%176 W · 134 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Bears40c7,402$2,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9656965.2%45 W · 24 L+9.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4e24…7f38backed Bears30c7,282$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,200933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+80%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bears42c7,000$2,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,91051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf02…4fdcbacked Bears29c6,897$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xafe7…cf28backed Ravens58c6,851$3,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,877.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d32…4301backed Bears42c6,828$2,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,867.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Bears44c6,818$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00013142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa925…e1c8backed Bears33c6,788$2,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2691540%6 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x778a…ec9dbacked Ravens59c6,780$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,779.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6919…5effbacked Ravens75c6,667$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,666.674852.1%25 W · 23 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0432…1660backed Bears36c6,336$2,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2565540%22 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Ravens72c6,303$4,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,764.8431848.1%153 W · 165 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4a3…0848backed Bears53c6,071$3,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,237.34252.4%22 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d85…228ebacked Ravens59c5,932$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,432.23056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd297…2c15backed Bears63c5,927$3,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,737.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc210…f0cabacked Bears44c5,925$2,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6072638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-28.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bears26c5,868$1,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,551.9253348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54a3…1c90backed Bears43c5,823$2,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5041442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Bears42c5,276$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2003450%17 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaec3…22dfbacked Ravens77c5,219$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.48450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd339…d3a1backed Ravens56c5,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2001154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick36cpaid+47%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Ravens56c5,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,199.995246.2%24 W · 28 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Ravens57c4,853$2,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,086.810552.4%55 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Bears42c4,747$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00011649.1%57 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00d6…aa44backed Bears25c4,703$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,175.73423.5%8 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Bears38c4,500$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7105446.3%25 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Bears45c4,446$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00018140.9%74 W · 107 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b88…9856backed Bears42c4,314$1,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,811.71333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7463…327fbacked Bears58c4,284$2,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,484.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Bears26c4,263$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,108.3613450%67 W · 67 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc03…1548backed Ravens70c4,094$2,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,241.036624.2%16 W · 50 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+81.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Ravens60c4,029$2,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,596.6941248.5%200 W · 212 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae5…53c8backed Bears34c4,001$1,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347.195143.1%22 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Bears27c4,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.0921227.8%59 W · 153 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-24.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Ravens57c4,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7204330.2%13 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x06f2…0f55backed Bears26c3,800$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Ravens56c3,643$2,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,585.8410434.6%36 W · 68 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x98a3…d61ebacked Bears50c3,600$1,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,79412152.1%63 W · 58 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.