NFL · resolved market
Spread: Ravens (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2eca2eea67ca47d864ef61d0de404da740d044baad80594a666633aee55cb396
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ravensof Ravens, Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Ravens | 46c | 19,710$9,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,698.83 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bears | 56c | 7,178$4,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,026.57 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bears | 50c | 4,850$2,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,425 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Ravens | 44c | 4,723$2,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,644.73 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bears | 56c | 4,306$2,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,416.14 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bears | 57c | 3,000$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,710 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Bears | 55c | 2,000$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Bears | 57c | 1,059$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.85 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Ravens | 51c | 1,012$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.17 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Bears | 57c | 932.8$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.3 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Ravens | 44c | 920$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.2 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bears | 55c | 909.33$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.73 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Ravens | 43c | 636.1$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.28 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Bears | 53c | 616$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.29 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Bears | 60c | 600.1$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bears | 54c | 564.02$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.15 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Bears | 59c | 423.73$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 167 | 37.7%63 W · 104 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…e8d0backed Bears | 58c | 335$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.3 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Ravens | 43c | 174.42$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.42 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Bears | 58c | 174$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.92 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Ravens | 42c | 173.81$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.81 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Bears | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Ravens | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e3…e5b3backed Bears | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Bears | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8984…8af8backed Ravens | 43c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Bears | 58c | 52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Bears | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Bears | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60f7…80d2backed Bears | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7de7…ef81backed Bears | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 52cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Ravens | 44c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…1f39backed Bears | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Bears | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -9.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Ravens | 43c | 24.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb118…947ebacked Bears | 58c | 20.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Bears | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ravens (-3.5)this page
- Bears vs. RavensRavens won
- Bears vs. Ravens: 1H MoneylineRavens won
- Bears vs. Ravens: O/U 44.5Over won
- Bears vs. Ravens: O/U 45.5Over won
- Bears vs. Ravens: O/U 46.5Under won
- Bears vs. Ravens: O/U 47.5Under won
- Bears vs. Ravens: O/U 48.5Under won
- Bears vs. Ravens: O/U 49.5Under won
- Bears vs. Ravens: O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Ravens (-1.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-2.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-6.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-7.5)Ravens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.