NFL · resolved market
Spread: Ravens (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e85b34a51c6c17ded38114bb9b1059d0b890a81e9e344069341944969d6260b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ravensof Ravens, Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bears | 71c | 3,325$2,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,374.29 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Ravens | 31c | 1,828$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,262.53 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Ravens | 1c | 1,820$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,793.2 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Ravens | 28c | 1,557$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.62 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Ravens | 30c | 1,505$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,052.33 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Bears | 58c | 650$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Bears | 64c | 597.55$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.67 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Ravens | 27c | 525$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.25 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Ravens | 28c | 500$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Bears | 59c | 428.38$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.85 | 168 | 36.9%62 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Ravens | 29c | 399.75$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.22 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Bears | 79c | 379.75$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Ravens | 45c | 249.36$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.15 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Bears | 61c | 217$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.32 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb118…947ebacked Bears | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Bears | 72c | 121.82$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.71 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Ravens | 28c | 83.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Bears | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Ravens | 24c | 43.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2e…3ef0backed Bears | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ravens (-7.5)this page
- Bears vs. RavensRavens won
- Bears vs. Ravens: 1H MoneylineRavens won
- Bears vs. Ravens: O/U 44.5Over won
- Bears vs. Ravens: O/U 45.5Over won
- Bears vs. Ravens: O/U 46.5Under won
- Bears vs. Ravens: O/U 47.5Under won
- Bears vs. Ravens: O/U 48.5Under won
- Bears vs. Ravens: O/U 49.5Under won
- Bears vs. Ravens: O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Ravens (-1.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-2.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-3.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-6.5)Ravens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.