NFL · resolved market
Spread: Ravens (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5acff5063256abac09a8f119d2b4526c0c16984ab3cc48856a94c3d40b9dcb62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ravensof Ravens, Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $113,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Bears | 47c | 46,719$22,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,157.96 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Ravens | 52c | 28,468$14,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,704.39 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Ravens | 53c | 18,856$9,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,896.61 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked Ravens | 34c | 12,240$4,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,078.4 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Bears | 48c | 7,986$3,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,857.92 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Ravens | 50c | 5,439$2,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,729.82 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Bears | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Ravens | 36c | 1,879$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.57 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Ravens | 32c | 1,811$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231.63 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Bears | 47c | 1,485$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…1f11backed Ravens | 44c | 1,327$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.8 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Ravens | 30c | 1,115$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.72 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Ravens | 34c | 1,101$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.38 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Bears | 51c | 1,020$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.2 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Bears | 47c | 1,016$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.52 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Ravens | 30c | 1,011$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.45 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Bears | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Ravens | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked Ravens | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Ravens | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Ravens | 40c | 960$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Ravens | 52c | 906.3$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.8 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Ravens | 52c | 633.09$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.88 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Ravens | 52c | 600$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Ravens | 45c | 550$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Ravens | 50c | 500.82$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.42 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Ravens | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Bears | 66c | 499.98$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.99 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Ravens | 34c | 481.12$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.54 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Ravens | 33c | 443.89$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.34 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Ravens | 54c | 435$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.1 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…3363backed Bears | 68c | 366.98$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.22 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Bears | 68c | 353.74$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.54 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Ravens | 49c | 341.37$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.1 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a0…d410backed Ravens | 49c | 340.1$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.78 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Ravens | 51c | 330$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.1 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…558cbacked Bears | 50c | 318.99$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 162 | 75.3%122 W · 40 L | +17.3wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Bears | 60c | 308.81$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.9 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc648…259cbacked Ravens | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…293ebacked Ravens | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Ravens | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa52e…e2c4backed Ravens | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bears | 49c | 293.85$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.34 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14e…f856backed Ravens | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Bears | 47c | 237.46$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.11 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…b4b0backed Ravens | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Ravens | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 161 | 39.1%63 W · 98 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Ravens | 49c | 148.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Bears | 51c | 147.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Bears | 47c | 138$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.53 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Bears | 55c | 108.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.96 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Ravens | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Ravens | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f4…f275backed Ravens | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0915…d08abacked Ravens | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…39fdbacked Ravens | 49c | 91.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…ab9dbacked Bears | 55c | 91.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Ravens | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7259…a6c4backed Bears | 51c | 76.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f23…b19ebacked Bears | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50b8…2455backed Bears | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Ravens | 24c | 49.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Ravens | 51c | 49.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 183 | 50.3%92 W · 91 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…d86bbacked Ravens | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Bears | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…9f3fbacked Ravens | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Bears | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 40.8%69 W · 100 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…d3bebacked Ravens | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Ravens | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Ravens | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x929f…def4backed Ravens | 50c | 39.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Bears | 47c | 33.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb49e…58afbacked Ravens | 53c | 33.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Bears | 76c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked Ravens | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Bears | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…433fbacked Bears | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.7wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…87ddbacked Bears | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…1f39backed Bears | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ravens (-6.5)this page
- Bears vs. RavensRavens won
- Bears vs. Ravens: 1H MoneylineRavens won
- Bears vs. Ravens: O/U 44.5Over won
- Bears vs. Ravens: O/U 45.5Over won
- Bears vs. Ravens: O/U 46.5Under won
- Bears vs. Ravens: O/U 47.5Under won
- Bears vs. Ravens: O/U 48.5Under won
- Bears vs. Ravens: O/U 49.5Under won
- Bears vs. Ravens: O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Ravens (-1.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-2.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-3.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-7.5)Ravens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.