Token Launches · resolved market
MarginFi airdrop by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafdbc2b140c6dd0a9f0596f91bb6524054a984ed96c2089a950a77a7bb41fdc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 22c | 6,091$1,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334.2 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 5c | 4,302$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.99 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 60c | 1,703$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.9 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +7.7wins | +0.27per pick | 26cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f7…4899backed Yes | 49c | 1,414$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaec…665bbacked No | 51c | 1,320$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e5…ec44backed Yes | 36c | 1,122$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…c44bbacked Yes | 51c | 1,113$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 25c | 1,017$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.65 | 67 | 13.4%9 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 54c | 653.74$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.92 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Yes | 48c | 550$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…53d8backed No | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 52c | 497.1$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.31 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 50c | 468.16$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9424…44eebacked Yes | 46c | 423.26$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87f…b995backed Yes | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…a1f4backed Yes | 56c | 250$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 57c | 250$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…8f42backed Yes | 41c | 248.78$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fba…89a9backed Yes | 32c | 218.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…3963backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 57c | 191.21$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.99 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…c756backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a2…7967backed No | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2096…ca7dbacked No | 50c | 87.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0582…90a7backed No | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2439…c2acbacked No | 70c | 62.93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7633…0f1dbacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…e7e6backed No | 53c | 59.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4c…2a53backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bca…5337backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x869f…f203backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MarginFi airdrop by June 30?this page
- Argent airdrop by June 30?No won
- Astaria airdrop by June 30?No won
- Azuro airdrop by June 30?Yes won
- Backpack airdrop by June 30?No won
- Base airdrop by June 30?No won
- Berachain airdrop by June 30?No won
- Blast airdrop by June 30?Yes won
- Drift airdrop by June 30?Yes won
- EigenLayer airdrop by June 30?No won
- Foundation airdrop by June 30?No won
- Initia airdrop by June 30?No won
- Jumper airdrop by June 30?No won
- LayerZero airdrop by June 30?Yes won
- Linea airdrop by June 30?No won
- Magic Eden airdrop by June 30?No won
- Mantle airdrop by June 30?No won
- MetaMask airdrop by June 30?No won
- Phantom airdrop by June 30?No won
- Pudgy Penguins airdrop by June 30?No won
- Puffer airdrop by June 30?No won
- Rabby airdrop by June 30?No won
- Rainbow airdrop by June 30?No won
- Rysk airdrop by June 30?No won
- Scroll airdrop by June 30?No won
- Swell airdrop by June 30?No won
- Zerion airdrop by June 30?No won
- Zircuit airdrop by June 30?No won
- Zora airdrop by June 30?No won
- pump.fun airdrop by June 30?No won
- zkSync airdrop by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.