Token Launches · resolved market
Rabby airdrop by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9058addb8f0f422eff95bbe7c14384d3d4600d26109c3f19fb8e2b4a3cc34bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 8c | 7,558$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.92 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 6c | 6,868$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.23 | 67 | 13.4%9 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 1c | 5,189$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked Yes | 11c | 3,480$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.19 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…7283backed Yes | 16c | 3,206$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.95 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbaec…665bbacked Yes | 19c | 3,048$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf414…917fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,847$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,752$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.32 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb416…dd4fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,673$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 15c | 1,423$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.42 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 15c | 1,259$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.1 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 12c | 1,231$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.99 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 14cpaid | -96.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9c…8812backed Yes | 8c | 1,186$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f8…cc2bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,153$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…59bdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,058$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…4f27backed Yes | 16c | 1,032$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.99 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed Yes | 18c | 902.02$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.85 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed Yes | 21c | 850$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f63ebacked Yes | 5c | 806.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa622…e9b1backed Yes | 7c | 768.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a1…b818backed Yes | 7c | 706.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab57…842bbacked Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be0…0154backed Yes | 8c | 505$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…8155backed Yes | 10c | 426.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1198…7423backed Yes | 6c | 312.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fba…89a9backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…9d74backed Yes | 15c | 300$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…3789backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 12c | 283$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb233…4130backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe04a…1d54backed Yes | 10c | 208.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf5…4da2backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0d…01e7backed Yes | 39c | 191.2$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b2…3737backed No | 78c | 179.49$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe440…dbbcbacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60f3…5745backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc8…6ef6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00bf…0a7fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bca…5337backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc497…7976backed Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…4984backed Yes | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rabby airdrop by June 30?this page
- Argent airdrop by June 30?No won
- Astaria airdrop by June 30?No won
- Azuro airdrop by June 30?Yes won
- Backpack airdrop by June 30?No won
- Base airdrop by June 30?No won
- Berachain airdrop by June 30?No won
- Blast airdrop by June 30?Yes won
- Drift airdrop by June 30?Yes won
- EigenLayer airdrop by June 30?No won
- Foundation airdrop by June 30?No won
- Initia airdrop by June 30?No won
- Jumper airdrop by June 30?No won
- LayerZero airdrop by June 30?Yes won
- Linea airdrop by June 30?No won
- Magic Eden airdrop by June 30?No won
- Mantle airdrop by June 30?No won
- MarginFi airdrop by June 30?No won
- MetaMask airdrop by June 30?No won
- Phantom airdrop by June 30?No won
- Pudgy Penguins airdrop by June 30?No won
- Puffer airdrop by June 30?No won
- Rainbow airdrop by June 30?No won
- Rysk airdrop by June 30?No won
- Scroll airdrop by June 30?No won
- Swell airdrop by June 30?No won
- Zerion airdrop by June 30?No won
- Zircuit airdrop by June 30?No won
- Zora airdrop by June 30?No won
- pump.fun airdrop by June 30?No won
- zkSync airdrop by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.