TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Swell airdrop by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$121,928
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$108,046

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,928 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes24c13,275$3,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,233.57392.6%1 W · 38 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick14cpaid-96.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No15c12,818$1,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,953.912853.6%15 W · 13 L+7.7wins+0.27per pick26cpaid+103.1%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x7789…f823backed Yes27c12,798$3,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,447.515315.1%8 W · 45 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-52.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3972…5d9ebacked Yes1c10,525$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.32933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-39.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x47a1…0ff3backed Yes28c6,795$1,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,916.8680%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No62c5,803$3,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,219.0911833.9%40 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes10c4,729$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.23848.3%7 W · 77 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1894…7283backed Yes55c2,095$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,151.71428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-58.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1660…5598backed Yes3c2,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-67.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a66…9051backed Yes71c1,831$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-47.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8bd…2f52backed Yes8c1,799$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.41425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-68.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x190b…dbfabacked Yes55c1,607$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked Yes15c1,052$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.215617.9%10 W · 46 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bcb…535bbacked Yes64c900$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2d18…2ed7backed Yes2c884$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9be…fe74backed Yes6c867.77$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes39c625.54$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.056713.4%9 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-74.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x828d…cc2abacked Yes4c555.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2de9…4b3fbacked No64c531.25$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5e5…03bdbacked No26c500$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+286.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc315…8e55backed Yes60c477.55$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.05728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1627…fe2fbacked Yes38c431.59$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc68b…8d19backed Yes49c405.31$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes5c317.84$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.291618.8%3 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick6cpaid+170%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce82…eb94backed Yes4c295.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3675…7473backed Yes50c274.69$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaab…adfabacked Yes13c254.62$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa235…a438backed Yes50c235.86$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda21…c835backed Yes67c232.78$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2425…6603backed No33c232.78$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ad1…a8c3backed Yes43c232$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.76425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-67.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x209c…d319backed No12c215$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.22133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02c1…e2ebbacked Yes5c207.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fe0…f2a8backed No70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-50.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dde…b8f1backed Yes12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5bc1…2dc9backed Yes49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick59cpaid+85.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcfad…7ef3backed Yes50c180.6$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.330%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74a0…a01dbacked Yes51c178.17$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf02…33ffbacked Yes22c169.14$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x168b…0450backed No69c149.6$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.61741.2%7 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+72.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x14ec…ba7bbacked No80c142.71$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa622…e9b1backed Yes71c140.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd31…e149backed No76c134.13$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.35250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x129b…24c4backed Yes65c125.48$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.055851.7%30 W · 28 L+6.7wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0941…eaf9backed No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+32.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd50a…d634backed Yes61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4df…e356backed Yes20c95.24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc59…df13backed No55c92.65$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.691250%6 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+118.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf82f…59bfbacked Yes30c87.94$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.381020%2 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51d2…c819backed No59c84.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ad3…caa2backed No38c77.04$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f06…d330backed No70c75.47$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.71825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-60.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7a2…5345backed No60c66.82$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+131.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x81b8…c5dbbacked No76c65.88$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0196…1dd6backed No47c63.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.83862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick33cpaid+79.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1269…b18cbacked No65c62.77$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.971040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-40.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No19c62.09$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.09626.5%4 W · 58 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-76.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91b0…7cd6backed Yes43c57.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae16…7111backed No53c52.92$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbb0…fa44backed No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf151…5c0abacked Yes56c44.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96c1…4627backed Yes36c44.44$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf54…5345backed Yes50c43.72$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71d0…4984backed Yes49c42.86$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x669d…171cbacked No64c40.23$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc70a…5ae9backed No61c38.87$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x987d…0864backed No57c38.6$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbba…5f0cbacked No64c36.28$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.06333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25c3…ab0cbacked No64c36.23$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c43…58b4backed No56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.71333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb233…4130backed Yes45c34.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.49333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-57.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4486…4365backed No59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bf6…4fd4backed No64c33.42$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.03425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-60.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdabe…5bdebacked Yes80c31.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-33.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a97…fe95backed Yes59c30.3$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0c…635abacked No57c26.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f7…08aebacked Yes45c23.07$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.38110%0 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5593…2cd1backed Yes49c22.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x63f8…d0c2backed No63c22.4$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.29250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe206…b9f3backed Yes50c20.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.452227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-34.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6f98…97cbbacked Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a16…a04fbacked Yes65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfee8…85a6backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa0e…3094backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e02…7051backed No59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f42…a975backed No64c19.73$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8505…eeecbacked No75c18.54$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.54425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-66.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ba0…c2b7backed No63c18.31$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.69425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-60.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6540…d892backed No63c16.3$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.03425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-60.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.