TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Zircuit airdrop by June 30?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$79,815
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$67,823

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,815 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2890…b5ecbacked Yes11c9,280$983 inLost-$982.9160%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes1c6,823$98 inLost-$97.91848.3%7 W · 77 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7789…f823backed Yes3c6,632$183 inLost-$183.025315.1%8 W · 45 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-52.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes5c4,918$238 inLost-$237.97392.6%1 W · 38 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick14cpaid-96.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1660…5598backed Yes8c1,846$148 inLost-$147.66425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-67.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1894…7283backed Yes29c1,671$478 inLost-$477.721428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-58.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes9c1,610$139 inLost-$139.246713.4%9 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-74.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1198…7423backed Yes6c1,033$60 inLost-$59.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf0c…4d73backed Yes7c968.14$68 inLost-$67.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dbd…af92backed Yes8c904.72$70 inLost-$70.52516%4 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-65.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ba2…4f27backed Yes6c831.49$50 inLost-$502222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x65ab…273dbacked Yes6c824.4$50 inLost-$49.99520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-54%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe04a…1d54backed Yes8c625$50 inLost-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-48.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a46…6200backed Yes8c481.94$40 inLost-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9b2…9c01backed Yes3c400$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked No75c216$161 inWon+$54.635617.9%10 W · 46 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d4b…e337backed Yes5c200$10 inLost-$10540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes28c195$56 inLost-$55.582040%8 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b9f…a27abacked Yes39c102.56$40 inLost-$401010%1 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick39cpaid-81.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd7a7…3950backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$10450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fe0…f2a8backed No66c99.99$66 inWon+$33.99633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-50.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d79…1f37backed Yes77c15.21$12 inLost-$11.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.