TailMyPicks
Market

Token Launches · resolved market

Rainbow airdrop by June 30?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$64,059
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,771

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,059 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes2c8,677$158 inLost-$158.21848.3%7 W · 77 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7789…f823backed Yes5c7,881$422 inLost-$421.865315.1%8 W · 45 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-52.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41a1…e5d4backed Yes4c5,693$211 inLost-$210.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes6c3,227$205 inLost-$205.35392.6%1 W · 38 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick14cpaid-96.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked Yes23c2,401$541 inLost-$541.065617.9%10 W · 46 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes12c1,745$204 inLost-$204.486713.4%9 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-74.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes10c1,605$153 inLost-$153626.5%4 W · 58 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-76.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x209c…d319backed No69c894$619 inWon+$274.522133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes24c720.8$175 inLost-$175.3111833.9%40 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dbd…af92backed Yes18c533.37$96 inLost-$95.762516%4 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-65.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc315…8e55backed Yes2c500$10 inLost-$10728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc9…148ebacked Yes37c400.58$150 inLost-$150450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb61b…53d8backed Yes35c400$140 inLost-$140837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde79…06abbacked Yes37c270.27$100 inLost-$1004721.3%10 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f36…cb88backed No61c232.61$142 inWon+$90.72250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe122…33febacked No69c216.14$150 inWon+$66.161050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No62c178.58$111 inWon+$67.862040%8 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x404c…4d7cbacked No64c143.72$92 inWon+$51.742100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cf5…8116backed No78c128.21$100 inWon+$28.21425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes27c100$27 inLost-$275623.2%13 W · 43 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ae…42a7backed No65c82.4$53 inWon+$29.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed No61c81.97$50 inWon+$31.971540%6 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-3.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa557…5771backed No71c70.42$50 inWon+$20.42837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+152.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae62…5146backed No78c51.28$40 inWon+$11.282100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+62.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2096…ca7dbacked No71c42.25$30 inWon+$12.25580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+39.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c8b…7377backed No64c25$16 inWon+$93100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6178…8624backed No78c21.44$17 inWon+$4.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.