TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Drift airdrop by June 30?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$127,881
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$136,540

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,881 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1894…7283backed Yes72c8,914$6,381 inWon+$2,532.341428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-58.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No1c7,785$89 inLost-$89.46848.3%7 W · 77 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f7c…d582backed No1c7,278$108 inLost-$108.0350%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked No6c6,662$379 inLost-$378.515617.9%10 W · 46 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7789…f823backed No16c6,384$1,025 inLost-$1,025.195315.1%8 W · 45 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-52.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x493b…6c08backed No1c5,127$43 inLost-$42.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0537…51c3backed No1c4,000$24 inLost-$24520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0852…104abacked No2c2,552$50 inLost-$49.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8b6…b0cabacked Yes15c2,200$330 inWon+$1,870250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+233.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed No11c2,182$248 inLost-$248.23831.6%12 W · 26 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-34.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe697…bc60backed No2c1,697$28 inLost-$27.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58b8…882cbacked No27c1,645$444 inLost-$444.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No11c1,626$184 inLost-$184.3311833.9%40 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c68…bee0backed No15c1,047$157 inLost-$15720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes32c731$234 inWon+$497.082548%12 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6e0…de9abacked No19c636.22$120 inLost-$120.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fdf…1561backed Yes68c484.35$330 inWon+$153.921050%5 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2325…ae85backed Yes15c433.33$65 inWon+$368.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+566.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No63c401$253 inLost-$253.22040%8 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacb3…feefbacked No4c400$17 inLost-$1740%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f9…0285backed No15c270$40 inLost-$40.3714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab57…842bbacked Yes79c253.16$200 inWon+$53.161145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca52…3963backed Yes28c210$59 inWon+$151.2714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-49%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc1…2dc9backed Yes40c200$80 inWon+$1201478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick59cpaid+85.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0298…d119backed Yes15c133.33$20 inWon+$113.333100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+321.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1bc9…148ebacked Yes65c128.32$84 inWon+$44.32450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaac…fe1cbacked Yes60c97.28$58 inWon+$38.912100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.