Token Launches · resolved market
Berachain airdrop by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a0f72d70c6843c1f12a6cedb67a96ad7ac1067067144703f85b230a7d3533e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 19c | 6,824$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.42 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 14cpaid | -96.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 0c | 6,365$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 16c | 4,920$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.98 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8d…edbebacked No | 67c | 4,402$2,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,474.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 38c | 3,783$1,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,422.52 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 15c | 3,723$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.75 | 67 | 13.4%9 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 7c | 3,118$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e56…4199backed Yes | 29c | 2,392$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.94 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7643…76dcbacked Yes | 47c | 2,115$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xace2…9b56backed Yes | 30c | 1,666$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…2ef3backed Yes | 45c | 1,447$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 74c | 1,367$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.02 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Yes | 39c | 1,355$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 64c | 1,196$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.96 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1b…b43abacked Yes | 53c | 1,105$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcd…c2acbacked No | 70c | 901.05$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.35 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 54c | 802.27$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.47 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62ab…9880backed Yes | 41c | 702$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18f…294cbacked Yes | 28c | 700$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff92…f9b5backed No | 68c | 600$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 28c | 565.53$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.02 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f72…44bcbacked Yes | 51c | 520$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57c4…d57dbacked No | 57c | 508.68$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…7283backed Yes | 52c | 261.48$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.17 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab57…842bbacked Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3275…e2ffbacked Yes | 12c | 216.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…a537backed No | 57c | 182.42$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eed…6e59backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…3789backed No | 54c | 160$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f88…8a3dbacked Yes | 14c | 118.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 76c | 116.47$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…4bffbacked Yes | 52c | 115.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 46c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…9d02backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…53d8backed No | 47c | 95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…575dbacked Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e5…ec44backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a2…7967backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…f5febacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed No | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac69…84f2backed No | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Berachain airdrop by June 30?this page
- Argent airdrop by June 30?No won
- Astaria airdrop by June 30?No won
- Azuro airdrop by June 30?Yes won
- Backpack airdrop by June 30?No won
- Base airdrop by June 30?No won
- Blast airdrop by June 30?Yes won
- Drift airdrop by June 30?Yes won
- EigenLayer airdrop by June 30?No won
- Foundation airdrop by June 30?No won
- Initia airdrop by June 30?No won
- Jumper airdrop by June 30?No won
- LayerZero airdrop by June 30?Yes won
- Linea airdrop by June 30?No won
- Magic Eden airdrop by June 30?No won
- Mantle airdrop by June 30?No won
- MarginFi airdrop by June 30?No won
- MetaMask airdrop by June 30?No won
- Phantom airdrop by June 30?No won
- Pudgy Penguins airdrop by June 30?No won
- Puffer airdrop by June 30?No won
- Rabby airdrop by June 30?No won
- Rainbow airdrop by June 30?No won
- Rysk airdrop by June 30?No won
- Scroll airdrop by June 30?No won
- Swell airdrop by June 30?No won
- Zerion airdrop by June 30?No won
- Zircuit airdrop by June 30?No won
- Zora airdrop by June 30?No won
- pump.fun airdrop by June 30?No won
- zkSync airdrop by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.