Token Launches · resolved market
Scroll airdrop by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c187b260d8e25faeb8c4741aabf5bf074889b2c2c9c3991ff54c50009a29dc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $138,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $139,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 7c | 11,829$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.91 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa357…1045backed Yes | 15c | 9,198$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 3c | 8,407$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.39 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 3c | 8,374$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.35 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 8c | 6,924$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.81 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 3c | 3,690$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.16 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 14cpaid | -96.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x491b…e846backed Yes | 31c | 2,196$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…7283backed No | 74c | 2,048$1,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.98 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 11c | 1,863$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.87 | 67 | 13.4%9 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ba…16d1backed Yes | 23c | 1,508$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f8…cc2bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 8c | 1,212$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.74 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed Yes | 27c | 1,026$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.94 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…29c6backed No | 73c | 953.62$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.62 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 23c | 868$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.64 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…c172backed Yes | 26c | 787.99$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3d…af2cbacked Yes | 31c | 515.32$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf119…b8a1backed Yes | 11c | 408.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…1981backed Yes | 14c | 402.21$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…df81backed Yes | 7c | 342.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 25c | 305.41$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.09 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…53d8backed No | 73c | 300$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…1a0ebacked Yes | 10c | 279.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21bc…044ebacked Yes | 10c | 253.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 41c | 205$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.05 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f53…1081backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6f…726ebacked Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed No | 73c | 192.6$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ba…8497backed No | 72c | 180.38$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fba…89a9backed Yes | 27c | 174.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…3963backed Yes | 26c | 167.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a2…7967backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf0…1207backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…d61ebacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4286…df49backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c7…7354backed Yes | 28c | 42.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Scroll airdrop by June 30?this page
- Argent airdrop by June 30?No won
- Astaria airdrop by June 30?No won
- Azuro airdrop by June 30?Yes won
- Backpack airdrop by June 30?No won
- Base airdrop by June 30?No won
- Berachain airdrop by June 30?No won
- Blast airdrop by June 30?Yes won
- Drift airdrop by June 30?Yes won
- EigenLayer airdrop by June 30?No won
- Foundation airdrop by June 30?No won
- Initia airdrop by June 30?No won
- Jumper airdrop by June 30?No won
- LayerZero airdrop by June 30?Yes won
- Linea airdrop by June 30?No won
- Magic Eden airdrop by June 30?No won
- Mantle airdrop by June 30?No won
- MarginFi airdrop by June 30?No won
- MetaMask airdrop by June 30?No won
- Phantom airdrop by June 30?No won
- Pudgy Penguins airdrop by June 30?No won
- Puffer airdrop by June 30?No won
- Rabby airdrop by June 30?No won
- Rainbow airdrop by June 30?No won
- Rysk airdrop by June 30?No won
- Swell airdrop by June 30?No won
- Zerion airdrop by June 30?No won
- Zircuit airdrop by June 30?No won
- Zora airdrop by June 30?No won
- pump.fun airdrop by June 30?No won
- zkSync airdrop by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.