TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Base airdrop by June 30?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$268,036
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$235,505

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $268,036 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b7e…4562backed Yes5c42,481$1,995 inLost-$1,994.62646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-25.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes3c23,071$621 inLost-$621.366713.4%9 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-74.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes1c20,754$173 inLost-$173.48848.3%7 W · 77 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes0c10,939$41 inLost-$41.44392.6%1 W · 38 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick14cpaid-96.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa14b…b944backed Yes1c7,854$103 inLost-$103.46825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-66%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c5,449$98 inLost-$97.71626.5%4 W · 58 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-76.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dbd…af92backed Yes1c4,467$26 inLost-$262516%4 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-65.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a64…c706backed Yes1c1,833$11 inLost-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60d1…0c8fbacked Yes1c1,357$15 inLost-$1515539.4%61 W · 94 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes2c1,246$27 inLost-$26.9511833.9%40 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa16f…6600backed Yes6c500$30 inLost-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaac1…93c7backed Yes4c500$19 inLost-$1930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca52…3963backed Yes9c205$18 inLost-$18.45714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-49%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x209c…d319backed Yes10c205$21 inLost-$20.52133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes14c201$28 inLost-$28.14825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-62.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes8c200.25$16 inLost-$16.025623.2%13 W · 43 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.