TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Azuro airdrop by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$77,550
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$77,467

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,550 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x24c8…23e1backed No5c11,447$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.25848.3%7 W · 77 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3744…c141backed No11c9,173$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.48616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-74.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x775b…7304backed No1c7,942$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a0c…994dbacked No17c3,933$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccf0…3b75backed Yes72c3,394$2,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.55333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-53.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No19c2,602$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.436713.4%9 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-74.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe95e…61f2backed Yes10c2,204$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,992.2615041.3%62 W · 88 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd45…37ebbacked No10c1,448$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.9660%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7789…f823backed No35c1,066$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.795315.1%8 W · 45 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-52.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc757…df54backed No14c1,061$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7546…9832backed No7c999.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No8c541.18$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8911833.9%40 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6acb…dccfbacked No9c342.5$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6499…7b68backed No10c298.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc1…2dc9backed Yes12c250$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2201478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick59cpaid+85.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd05f…949cbacked No12c202$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb44a…97ebbacked No8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e4a…faafbacked No8c187.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x830d…e1f4backed Yes51c185$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+77.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2767…ffb2backed No13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+38.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c34…88ebbacked No12c140$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked No10c136.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.315617.9%10 W · 46 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e51…bef7backed Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bcb…66cabacked Yes67c90$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7831…a4a7backed No34c88.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x258c…f488backed Yes79c37.97$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.973100%3 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1614…64cdbacked No49c33.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c3…ad79backed No49c25.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67d3…545bbacked Yes67c16.42$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5593…2cd1backed Yes80c13.75$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.751154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8111…489dbacked No80c12.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102560%15 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+46.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.