Token Launches · resolved market
Azuro airdrop by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb27d3daef7ab970410cf628a9330e46a78be59b68f220a3c24e60ca0111c8ab4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 5c | 11,447$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.25 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…c141backed No | 11c | 9,173$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775b…7304backed No | 1c | 7,942$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…994dbacked No | 17c | 3,933$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf0…3b75backed Yes | 72c | 3,394$2,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 19c | 2,602$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.43 | 67 | 13.4%9 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed Yes | 10c | 2,204$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,992.26 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd45…37ebbacked No | 10c | 1,448$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.96 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 35c | 1,066$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.79 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…df54backed No | 14c | 1,061$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7546…9832backed No | 7c | 999.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 8c | 541.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6acb…dccfbacked No | 9c | 342.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6499…7b68backed No | 10c | 298.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc1…2dc9backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd05f…949cbacked No | 12c | 202$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb44a…97ebbacked No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…faafbacked No | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x830d…e1f4backed Yes | 51c | 185$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2767…ffb2backed No | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c34…88ebbacked No | 12c | 140$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 10c | 136.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e51…bef7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcb…66cabacked Yes | 67c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…a4a7backed No | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258c…f488backed Yes | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1614…64cdbacked No | 49c | 33.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c3…ad79backed No | 49c | 25.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…545bbacked Yes | 67c | 16.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5593…2cd1backed Yes | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Azuro airdrop by June 30?this page
- Argent airdrop by June 30?No won
- Astaria airdrop by June 30?No won
- Backpack airdrop by June 30?No won
- Base airdrop by June 30?No won
- Berachain airdrop by June 30?No won
- Blast airdrop by June 30?Yes won
- Drift airdrop by June 30?Yes won
- EigenLayer airdrop by June 30?No won
- Foundation airdrop by June 30?No won
- Initia airdrop by June 30?No won
- Jumper airdrop by June 30?No won
- LayerZero airdrop by June 30?Yes won
- Linea airdrop by June 30?No won
- Magic Eden airdrop by June 30?No won
- Mantle airdrop by June 30?No won
- MarginFi airdrop by June 30?No won
- MetaMask airdrop by June 30?No won
- Phantom airdrop by June 30?No won
- Pudgy Penguins airdrop by June 30?No won
- Puffer airdrop by June 30?No won
- Rabby airdrop by June 30?No won
- Rainbow airdrop by June 30?No won
- Rysk airdrop by June 30?No won
- Scroll airdrop by June 30?No won
- Swell airdrop by June 30?No won
- Zerion airdrop by June 30?No won
- Zircuit airdrop by June 30?No won
- Zora airdrop by June 30?No won
- pump.fun airdrop by June 30?No won
- zkSync airdrop by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.