TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfee8…85a6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
33
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Champions League, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 53 out of 100; worst Europa Conference League at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick1cpaid+355.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$691Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+5,822.9%+$40,263.41
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$807Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$807.14
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$165
Will PSV Eindhoven win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$8,280Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$8,279.96
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$138
Will Benfica win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$166.98
Will Juventus win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$66.51
Will Sporting CP win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$693Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$692.53
Will Monaco win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$82.19
Will Celtic win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will Bologna win the UEFA Champions League? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$230.97
Will Sturm Graz win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$2,502Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$2,501.73
Will RB Leipzig win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$362Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2024, EST-100%-$362.42
All 13 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2025, EST520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-73.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2024, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
$PENGU market cap (FDV) $4-6b one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+42.9%+$5.14
Swell airdrop by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$10
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2024, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$350
Will Boston Celtics 2023-24 NBA Champions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2024, EDT+47.1%+$7.06
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Arsenal wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.12
Manchester United wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST-100%-$257.7
All 2 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Sep 26, 2024, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olympiacos beat Lyon?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2024, EDT-100%-$104.6
Will Manchester United beat Twente?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$501Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2024, EDT-100%-$500.98
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST+49.3%+$43.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$759Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT+31.7%+$240.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST+26.6%+$5.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$1,662Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,662.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oregon win the 2025 College Football Playoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2025, EST-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will India win the ICC T20 Cricket World Cup backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$47
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST-100%-$76.25
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.