NFL · resolved market
Will the Jaguars win the AFC Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81a58e23bb2a6af50c841b7d65dc703175999cd1a0d3e522180823acfc262fcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,874,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,841,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,874,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89e3…e78ebacked Yes | 0c | 54,402$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.6 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x176d…4a26backed Yes | 0c | 19,440$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2f…d02dbacked Yes | 1c | 18,430$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7f…76afbacked Yes | 1c | 18,430$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…2968backed Yes | 1c | 18,430$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…5f80backed Yes | 1c | 18,430$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd13d…0989backed Yes | 1c | 18,430$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab9d…b094backed Yes | 1c | 18,430$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a0…e7fbbacked Yes | 1c | 18,430$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…5cbcbacked Yes | 1c | 18,430$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8e…0810backed Yes | 1c | 18,430$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc9…1aadbacked Yes | 1c | 18,430$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3d…5ffbbacked Yes | 1c | 18,430$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a8e…9f5bbacked Yes | 1c | 18,430$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ce…fcabbacked Yes | 1c | 18,430$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ee…f0fdbacked Yes | 1c | 18,430$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40c…61febacked Yes | 1c | 18,430$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccaf…6634backed Yes | 1c | 18,430$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…bdd7backed Yes | 1c | 18,430$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde4d…1d38backed Yes | 1c | 18,421$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d2…d453backed Yes | 1c | 16,127$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fb…d573backed Yes | 1c | 16,127$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6d…f2babacked Yes | 1c | 16,127$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc7…2d70backed Yes | 1c | 16,127$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4e…38f0backed Yes | 1c | 16,127$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd25a…77e1backed Yes | 1c | 16,127$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…abecbacked Yes | 1c | 16,126$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a5…4a2bbacked Yes | 1c | 14,056$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0858…9dd0backed Yes | 1c | 14,036$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcf…c08bbacked Yes | 1c | 14,035$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a69…77a4backed Yes | 1c | 14,035$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3995…a0f0backed Yes | 1c | 14,035$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee42…c06fbacked Yes | 1c | 14,035$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2896…1301backed Yes | 1c | 14,035$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76a…deacbacked Yes | 1c | 14,035$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1599…422ebacked Yes | 1c | 14,035$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1312…e247backed Yes | 1c | 14,035$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6767…4210backed Yes | 1c | 14,035$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b30…d7d5backed Yes | 1c | 14,035$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f1…d2bebacked Yes | 1c | 14,034$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc27…b66abacked Yes | 1c | 14,034$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb54f…b0a9backed Yes | 1c | 14,034$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…b351backed Yes | 0c | 13,997$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebeb…bf37backed Yes | 1c | 12,025$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…200abacked Yes | 1c | 11,715$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15b5…a895backed Yes | 1c | 11,622$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…d0d1backed Yes | 1c | 11,619$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9094…aed7backed Yes | 1c | 11,515$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14cc…224dbacked Yes | 1c | 11,479$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x042c…6fd3backed Yes | 1c | 11,412$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec6…1a32backed Yes | 1c | 11,228$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…2e31backed Yes | 1c | 11,228$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes | 0c | 10,299$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…02b1backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 2.3%1 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf004…a398backed Yes | 1c | 8,421$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 7,470$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 106 | 1.9%2 W · 104 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,776$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 243 | 0.8%2 W · 241 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 1c | 3,688$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 46 | 4.3%2 W · 44 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…85a6backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd95…99f2backed Yes | 3c | 770$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 157 | 22.3%35 W · 122 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Jaguars win the AFC Championship?this page
- Will the Bengals win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Bills win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Browns win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Chargers win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Chiefs win the AFC Championship?Yes won
- Will the Colts win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Dolphins win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Jets win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Raiders win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Ravens win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Steelers win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Texans win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Titans win the AFC Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.