TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Raiders win the AFC Championship?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,045,280
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,634,929

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,045,280 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x57a0…2884backed Yes0c43,233$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4410…592dbacked Yes0c43,233$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c28,075$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.241769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10f9…94f4backed Yes1c26,855$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04ea…9e60backed Yes1c26,855$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf01c…3bfabacked Yes1c26,855$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b2e…a718backed Yes1c26,855$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b11…1530backed Yes1c26,855$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf01e…700cbacked Yes1c26,855$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf066…a9ffbacked Yes1c26,855$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9224…56abbacked Yes1c26,855$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4203…42d5backed Yes1c26,855$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd091…d534backed Yes1c26,855$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a3b…e383backed Yes1c26,855$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf21c…0ec7backed Yes1c26,855$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fdf…2c89backed Yes1c26,855$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5911…ac4abacked Yes1c26,855$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79db…57d3backed Yes1c26,855$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0fc…55b9backed Yes1c26,855$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeefc…7f7fbacked Yes1c26,845$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0468…583fbacked Yes1c26,845$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd38a…1c97backed Yes1c26,447$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x866d…4b18backed Yes1c26,447$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6c8…9987backed Yes1c26,447$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7221…79a6backed Yes1c26,447$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd28…bf3ebacked Yes1c26,447$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf819…4c24backed Yes1c26,447$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…2cccbacked Yes1c26,447$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec7a…39fdbacked Yes1c26,447$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0ae…2e36backed Yes1c26,447$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5f7…4194backed Yes1c26,447$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89e8…61febacked Yes1c26,447$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1665…aec8backed Yes1c26,447$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd899…7e7fbacked Yes1c26,447$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb688…0cd6backed Yes1c26,447$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7afc…c7d2backed Yes1c26,447$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c64…ccc4backed Yes1c24,604$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07ed…4648backed Yes1c24,249$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2be6…e153backed Yes1c24,249$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d7c…3ab9backed Yes1c24,249$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9c1…c174backed Yes1c24,249$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7157…ccf7backed Yes1c24,249$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9269…a790backed Yes1c24,249$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d0b…55f7backed Yes1c24,249$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd7e…db8abacked Yes1c24,249$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1723…1b01backed Yes1c24,235$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe654…87a9backed Yes1c24,047$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe21b…ef45backed Yes1c24,047$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3516…4c2abacked Yes1c24,047$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0b9…7bc2backed Yes1c24,047$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7216…103dbacked Yes1c24,047$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e4a…8672backed Yes1c24,032$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd1e…08a7backed Yes1c23,802$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa071…badfbacked Yes1c23,802$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2941…8f07backed Yes1c23,802$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb54backed Yes1c23,802$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc815…5993backed Yes1c23,802$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0c8…9911backed Yes1c23,802$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a3…3a3ebacked Yes1c23,802$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e14…d994backed Yes1c23,802$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0229…f142backed Yes1c23,802$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38fe…068dbacked Yes1c23,498$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6510…cfc2backed Yes1c23,498$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46d9…8c98backed Yes1c23,498$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0391…d96dbacked Yes1c23,498$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51a2…e800backed Yes1c23,498$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7521…cc3ebacked Yes1c23,498$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb555…f266backed Yes1c23,498$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23ae…e3d6backed Yes1c22,564$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c5…c035backed Yes0c21,468$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67d9…f8e1backed Yes1c21,397$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62d4…db67backed Yes1c21,209$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a2b…19c7backed Yes1c21,194$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb07…7c8dbacked Yes1c21,194$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16df…2959backed Yes1c21,180$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a27…26bcbacked Yes1c20,977$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89e3…e78ebacked Yes0c20,657$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.63180%0 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22b6…3fb7backed Yes1c18,125$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5646…ef5cbacked Yes1c18,125$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fb6…9f55backed Yes1c18,125$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3134…9ddcbacked Yes0c14,119$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c12,027$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.442430.8%2 W · 241 L+1.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076b…0bbfbacked Yes0c11,435$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc83…e316backed Yes0c10,734$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bc2…6b73backed Yes0c10,734$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8461…7982backed Yes0c10,734$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13e8…ea37backed Yes0c10,734$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d0b…4f4dbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20342.9%1 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-78.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f2…5e85backed Yes0c6,201$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff2a…5900backed Yes0c5,822$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4780%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa488…3368backed Yes0c5,667$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ba0…25efbacked Yes0c5,206$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f5c…74babacked Yes0c5,205$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57eb…f175backed Yes0c5,205$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6290%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2623…16c2backed Yes0c5,205$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe783…510dbacked Yes0c5,200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c4,999$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151061.9%2 W · 104 L+0.5wins0.00per pick1cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd80f…afdbbacked Yes0c4,398$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x714f…e8aebacked Yes0c4,259$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b21…5a27backed Yes0c4,178$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.