TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Steelers win the AFC Championship?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$73,942
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,690

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,942 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9495…468fbacked Yes2c4,840$105 inLost-$105.24128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-79.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Yes3c3,639$125 inLost-$125.4220440.7%83 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-17%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f33…5ff1backed Yes7c3,237$235 inLost-$234.981947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick36cpaid0%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes2c3,163$53 inLost-$53.1216226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes6c3,000$165 inLost-$1651020%2 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-61.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes6c2,896$168 inLost-$167.6328433.1%94 W · 190 L-0.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes6c2,869$159 inLost-$159.261809.4%17 W · 163 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-59.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xedaa…2f33backed Yes10c2,330$240 inLost-$2401428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes5c1,773$96 inLost-$96.3812022.5%27 W · 93 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x698e…8042backed Yes8c1,586$125 inLost-$1251030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes1c1,510$14 inLost-$13.5922434.4%77 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c1,424$81 inLost-$80.6252828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes9c1,405$121 inLost-$121.121014%4 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd95…99f2backed Yes5c1,284$58 inLost-$57.8715722.3%35 W · 122 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes4c1,200$43 inLost-$43.21061.9%2 W · 104 L+0.5wins0.00per pick1cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf916…9224backed Yes10c550$53 inLost-$52.51936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ce…3fc6backed Yes6c550$30 inLost-$30.251258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick38cpaid+25%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes7c500$33 inLost-$33.56832.4%22 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc954…bdf5backed Yes8c397.2$31 inLost-$30.971241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes3c377.16$11 inLost-$10.92464.3%2 W · 44 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…757abacked Yes5c334.75$16 inLost-$16.51513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-39.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f29…3bc7backed Yes7c270$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6704…baa4backed Yes9c266.78$25 inLost-$252737%10 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc1f…aff5backed Yes10c170$17 inLost-$16.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.