TailMyPicks
Market

NFL · resolved market

Will the Jets win the AFC Championship?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,544,717
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$154,416

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,544,717 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 220 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbdcd…7b2fbacked Yes0c180,383$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.3830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71ea…3dabbacked Yes0c166,457$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.4640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17b2…cb01backed Yes0c160,530$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.5340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccff…2823backed Yes0c154,604$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed95…fb11backed Yes0c152,604$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x223e…d30dbacked Yes0c150,604$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a3a…3dfbbacked Yes0c150,604$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x743f…8554backed Yes0c144,677$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.6850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1775…d363backed Yes0c144,677$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.6840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb99a…84c2backed Yes0c144,677$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.6840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd68a…618abacked Yes0c142,677$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.6840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe947…57d9backed Yes0c142,677$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.6830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc034…b180backed Yes0c142,677$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.6840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46db…8f1cbacked Yes0c138,751$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.7530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3aba…9257backed Yes0c136,751$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.7540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51a1…795fbacked Yes0c136,751$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.7540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d14…f761backed Yes0c136,751$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.7550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf92e…e285backed Yes0c134,751$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.7540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc232…74a4backed Yes0c134,751$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.7540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6526…d3c1backed Yes0c134,751$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.7550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3939…e570backed Yes0c134,751$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.7540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d82…8eacbacked Yes0c130,824$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.8240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9f1…368bbacked Yes0c128,824$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.8240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b9d…aa53backed Yes0c128,824$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.8240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629f…883cbacked Yes0c126,824$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.8250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5acd…998ebacked Yes0c126,824$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.8230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x154a…5282backed Yes0c124,898$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa919…d14cbacked Yes0c122,898$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f87…4327backed Yes0c120,898$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2c2…c2c6backed Yes0c120,898$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc138…9079backed Yes0c120,898$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4779…d83dbacked Yes0c120,898$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x713f…4cf2backed Yes0c118,898$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e5b…fe13backed Yes0c118,898$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3629…352ebacked Yes0c114,971$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.9750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d9a…611dbacked Yes0c112,971$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d17…b1adbacked Yes0c112,971$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55c6…f583backed Yes0c112,971$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafef…771abacked Yes0c112,971$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0381…ee4bbacked Yes0c112,971$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea0f…6f47backed Yes0c112,971$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dbf…3cc4backed Yes0c110,971$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ef4…18b9backed Yes0c110,971$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b31…7c50backed Yes0c110,971$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc646…d73abacked Yes0c110,971$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc3b…1bd4backed Yes0c110,971$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb481…eddfbacked Yes0c110,971$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56ae…58eebacked Yes0c110,971$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dfe…d89bbacked Yes0c110,971$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f63…55d8backed Yes0c110,971$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79be…8e99backed Yes0c107,045$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.0440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd613…c48fbacked Yes0c107,045$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.0440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4da9…a19bbacked Yes0c105,045$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.0440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe14e…f551backed Yes0c105,045$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.0440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0763…59c6backed Yes0c105,045$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.0450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf12c…f076backed Yes0c103,045$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f8d…192ebacked Yes0c103,045$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35bf…d0bdbacked Yes0c103,045$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6001…8641backed Yes0c103,045$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4878…d76abacked Yes0c103,045$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7a3…4906backed Yes0c103,045$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80e8…23f6backed Yes0c101,118$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.1240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c67…9e53backed Yes0c99,118$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x015f…d472backed Yes0c99,118$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4edf…78c8backed Yes0c99,118$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9676…ab31backed Yes0c97,118$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa77…abcdbacked Yes0c97,118$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0e3…6ea6backed Yes0c97,118$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23f3…536fbacked Yes0c97,118$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37b6…e4fdbacked Yes0c97,118$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc624…8dedbacked Yes0c97,118$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x616a…3101backed Yes0c97,118$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27fc…9dd6backed Yes0c97,118$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x951e…010dbacked Yes0c97,118$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e69…b8e2backed Yes0c97,118$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d31…8e31backed Yes0c96,119$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2da…16d5backed Yes0c95,118$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd204…f56ebacked Yes0c95,118$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc18…3a37backed Yes0c95,118$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa38b…5979backed Yes0c95,118$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61a2…e644backed Yes0c95,118$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa96…360fbacked Yes0c95,118$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe22f…f77ebacked Yes0c95,118$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d2d…cf06backed Yes0c95,118$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc04d…264cbacked Yes0c95,118$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e85…1802backed Yes0c95,118$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2a7…ac59backed Yes0c95,118$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49be…ed73backed Yes0c95,118$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04ae…db41backed Yes0c95,118$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c1c…61d8backed Yes0c93,192$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8a4…e136backed Yes0c93,192$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7a3…f116backed Yes0c91,192$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.1950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd20d…0c58backed Yes0c89,192$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb92…405cbacked Yes0c89,192$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe32f…075fbacked Yes0c89,192$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc322…64ebbacked Yes0c89,192$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa51a…acb0backed Yes0c89,192$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4db…b582backed Yes0c89,192$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e6…7d6cbacked Yes0c87,192$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2e6…31a6backed Yes0c87,192$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.