NFL · resolved market
Will the Texans win the AFC Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89e67f4a510a0be72e45bfa7572256d9c3ed89d1c6b7dba76a978cabc3ab5627
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $325,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $357,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $325,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3b3…b307backed Yes | 4c | 52,000$2,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,184 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 2c | 20,036$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.56 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes | 4c | 6,369$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.43 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 8c | 5,340$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.63 | 120 | 22.5%27 W · 93 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd95…99f2backed Yes | 11c | 5,039$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.64 | 157 | 22.3%35 W · 122 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 3c | 4,619$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,397$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.09 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 12c | 3,243$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.16 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 14c | 3,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 202 | 46%93 W · 109 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…ee4cbacked Yes | 13c | 3,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 4c | 2,926$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.66 | 101 | 4%4 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…53c8backed Yes | 4c | 2,600$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 3c | 2,138$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 12c | 1,646$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.52 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 1,462$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.72 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,319$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,232$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 284 | 33.1%94 W · 190 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,083$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…43b7backed Yes | 4c | 1,060$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbabf…1d79backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…d1c7backed Yes | 14c | 980.5$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60d…e379backed Yes | 5c | 946.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc885…4ff2backed Yes | 5c | 716.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe081…97efbacked Yes | 4c | 710.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…757abacked Yes | 5c | 568.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f00…e8dbbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 4c | 467.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d79…4725backed Yes | 4c | 359.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 4c | 320.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 196 | 9.2%18 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 4c | 316.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 162 | 26.5%43 W · 119 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 9c | 308.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Yes | 4c | 305.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 4c | 282.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 12c | 250$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f34…3bd9backed Yes | 12c | 233$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 28.4%38 W · 96 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9292…2cd1backed Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8012…fa5ebacked Yes | 12c | 166.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…0213backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Texans win the AFC Championship?this page
- Will the Bengals win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Bills win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Browns win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Chargers win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Chiefs win the AFC Championship?Yes won
- Will the Colts win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Dolphins win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Jaguars win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Jets win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Raiders win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Ravens win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Steelers win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Titans win the AFC Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.