TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Bengals win the AFC Championship?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,263,774
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,071,751

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,263,774 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa3d2…ffc2backed Yes0c639,144$1,917 inLost-$1,917.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6d3…108fbacked Yes0c639,144$1,917 inLost-$1,917.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe446…093dbacked Yes0c566,514$1,700 inLost-$1,699.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d7b…f503backed Yes0c551,988$1,656 inLost-$1,655.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb59c…ef86backed Yes0c537,462$1,612 inLost-$1,612.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddcc…73e5backed Yes0c537,462$1,612 inLost-$1,612.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc191…c500backed Yes0c522,936$1,569 inLost-$1,568.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb778…e03ebacked Yes0c522,936$1,569 inLost-$1,568.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe700…f793backed Yes0c522,936$1,569 inLost-$1,568.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9413…9c8fbacked Yes0c522,936$1,569 inLost-$1,568.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90d1…c652backed Yes0c445,784$1,337 inLost-$1,337.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eed…5cb8backed Yes0c440,974$1,323 inLost-$1,322.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9292…8d44backed Yes2c50,000$750 inLost-$75010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes1c9,444$62 inLost-$62.321014%4 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c7,743$39 inLost-$39.062430.8%2 W · 241 L+1.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes1c3,757$30 inLost-$30.15128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-79.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6d1…f93cbacked Yes1c2,696$17 inLost-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c2,646$24 inLost-$23.5752828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes3c2,272$75 inLost-$75.2812022.5%27 W · 93 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes0c2,199$11 inLost-$10.77254%1 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick1cpaid-72.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes1c2,156$15 inLost-$15.091656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+46.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd8e…d105backed Yes11c2,000$220 inLost-$2202825%7 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-47.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1b9…0d20backed Yes1c1,538$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes1c1,410$11 inLost-$10.72508%4 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6356…1885backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost-$1006350.8%32 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd95…99f2backed Yes5c948.31$49 inLost-$48.8515722.3%35 W · 122 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes2c635.49$10 inLost-$10.141809.4%17 W · 163 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-59.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes3c408.8$11 inLost-$11.451061.9%2 W · 104 L+0.5wins0.00per pick1cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2518…a4ccbacked Yes3c408.8$12 inLost-$11.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…757abacked Yes3c379.73$10 inLost-$10.481513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-39.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.