NFL · resolved market

Will the Bills win the AFC Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4228d1c1dc61231e3fac31b0c20884ba64f93fdfbe08704990720b04408d337

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 27, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $416,334
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $373,388

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $416,334 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 694 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes	47c	108,200$50,629 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50,629.45	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-76.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No	55c	13,000$7,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,900	55	30.9%17 W · 38 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	38cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes	46c	12,357$5,684 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,684.04	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+46.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf15…53c8backed Yes	27c	11,732$3,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,200	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes	27c	10,219$2,762 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,762.41	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-10.7wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes	26c	9,794$2,574 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,574.16	101	4%4 W · 97 L	-4.3wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-87.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb10b…5102backed Yes	35c	9,221$3,267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,267.35	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked Yes	29c	7,135$2,066 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,066.42	65	40%26 W · 39 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed No	73c	6,000$4,380 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,620	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Yes	44c	4,800$2,136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,135.51	204	40.7%83 W · 121 L	+7.4wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	-17%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes	41c	4,781$1,972 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,971.75	224	34.4%77 W · 147 L	+8.4wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed Yes	26c	4,482$1,165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,165.31	97	54.6%53 W · 44 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	31c	4,086$1,249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,248.51	268	30.6%82 W · 186 L	-29.2wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes	27c	2,941$806 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$806.39	415	40.2%167 W · 248 L	-7.8wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1638…339bbacked No	72c	2,901$2,088 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$812.15	70	41.4%29 W · 41 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes	37c	2,871$1,071 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,071.47	196	45.4%89 W · 107 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x63bf…e319backed Yes	10c	2,800$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	87	29.9%26 W · 61 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d79…4725backed Yes	25c	2,758$690 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$689.7	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2214…5968backed Yes	45c	2,700$1,210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,210	38	44.7%17 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd95…99f2backed Yes	14c	2,621$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363.75	157	22.3%35 W · 122 L	-7.6wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5faf…27bbbacked Yes	34c	2,536$862 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$861.84	78	57.7%45 W · 33 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Yes	41c	2,500$1,030 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,030	243	51.4%125 W · 118 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	30c	2,328$707 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$707.15	68	32.4%22 W · 46 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes	22c	2,315$513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$513.22	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes	33c	2,235$733 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$732.52	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc2e…2358backed Yes	23c	2,176$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.13	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x421e…bc7fbacked Yes	48c	2,084$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.18per pick	43cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4402…bdf9backed Yes	28c	2,000$560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$560	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcb1…d3e3backed Yes	37c	1,815$674 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$674	101	25.7%26 W · 75 L	-4.3wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed Yes	10c	1,800$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	68	41.2%28 W · 40 L	+4.4wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+20%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked Yes	45c	1,797$809 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$808.61	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf916…9224backed Yes	30c	1,791$536 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$536.12	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed Yes	32c	1,730$558 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$558.21	90	45.6%41 W · 49 L	+3.7wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Yes	27c	1,671$453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$452.86	194	36.6%71 W · 123 L	-14.8wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x14dd…13eebacked Yes	13c	1,588$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.88	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcece…dc07backed Yes	30c	1,554$464 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$464.47	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	25cpaid	-4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes	36c	1,543$557 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$556.71	88	18.2%16 W · 72 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb71a…6fc9backed Yes	46c	1,501$695 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$695.3	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-4.1wins	-0.28per pick	34cpaid	-86.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfb79…c2c6backed No	53c	1,317$698 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$618.99	96	45.8%44 W · 52 L	+3.6wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes	25c	1,209$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.95	315	43.2%136 W · 179 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes	22c	1,117$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.01	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-79.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe065…d25fbacked Yes	25c	1,102$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.81	44	43.2%19 W · 25 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8db6…da81backed Yes	28c	1,071$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	81	49.4%40 W · 41 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bce…3c3abacked Yes	47c	1,054$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes	27c	994.82$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.49	150	8%12 W · 138 L	-9.7wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-74%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes	33c	932.8$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.47	256	43.8%112 W · 144 L	+14.6wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6116…f247backed Yes	16c	930$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.8	62	40.3%25 W · 37 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	68c	896.07$612 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$284.4	528	28.6%151 W · 377 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed Yes	12c	895.98$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.36	41	29.3%12 W · 29 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe47b…ed85backed No	68c	870$589 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$281	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.32per pick	68cpaid	+47.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes	31c	745$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.39	488	47.5%232 W · 256 L	+12.3wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes	33c	733.31$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.25	162	26.5%43 W · 119 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No	74c	700$517 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$183	196	38.8%76 W · 120 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6704…baa4backed Yes	32c	633.77$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a1f…ec73backed Yes	23c	594$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.22	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.7wins	+0.12per pick	45cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2625…b2f8backed Yes	48c	543$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.31	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-57%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa826…f823backed Yes	45c	500$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+1.9wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	+83.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Yes	30c	499.96$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.99	155	55.5%86 W · 69 L	+7.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes	13c	476.54$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.79	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab03…fae5backed Yes	14c	400$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd716…bf4fbacked Yes	31c	395.12$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.78	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…6e0ebacked Yes	25c	394.49$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	72	52.8%38 W · 34 L	+5.0wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes	30c	360.75$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.45	71	23.9%17 W · 54 L	-4.1wins	-0.06per pick	30cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f91…0df5backed Yes	28c	357.11$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.99	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-4.4wins	-0.18per pick	39cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1a03…b538backed Yes	28c	351$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.26	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4eb8…9231backed Yes	33c	312.72$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.7	135	47.4%64 W · 71 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-20%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa153…0bf0backed Yes	32c	310$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca4b…13b0backed Yes	33c	304.6$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d2c…0320backed Yes	32c	300$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45e1…f42dbacked Yes	26c	290.19$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	207	33.8%70 W · 137 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc828…8304backed Yes	35c	285.71$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	45	55.6%25 W · 20 L	+3.9wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa1f9…25a5backed Yes	25c	267.19$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed No	70c	262.07$183 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.71	153	32%49 W · 104 L	-8.6wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d47…4406backed Yes	33c	260$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa845…2307backed Yes	39c	255.15$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x542c…f12bbacked No	75c	250$187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63	97	24.7%24 W · 73 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	21cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b7a…4817backed Yes	25c	243.1$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.34	40	47.5%19 W · 21 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c0…c88cbacked Yes	31c	242.55$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	51	60.8%31 W · 20 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x098f…47cdbacked Yes	33c	229.99$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.4	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-2.4wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes	47c	215$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.05	118	39%46 W · 72 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61d1…ddccbacked Yes	27c	211.11$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac29…fa88backed Yes	48c	208.55$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	286	59.4%170 W · 116 L	+8.8wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43dd…5291backed Yes	34c	205.88$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e58…3c4cbacked Yes	32c	200.83$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.28	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf86e…cf24backed Yes	28c	200$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	+32%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e1a…e5ccbacked Yes	47c	200$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-4.4wins	-0.26per pick	37cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0xa111…e105backed Yes	25c	200$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbed0…77c7backed Yes	25c	190$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.5	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-1.6wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3792…3a3abacked Yes	25c	187.26$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc6c5…ac49backed Yes	27c	185.19$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No	72c	185$134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.15	39	25.6%10 W · 29 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bf…0791backed Yes	31c	181.84$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.37	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e84…7d2fbacked Yes	28c	178.57$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95ee…90a6backed Yes	18c	177.17$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.89	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad01…53e4backed Yes	24c	176.5$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.36	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.29per pick	46cpaid	+60.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7269…1371backed Yes	27c	175$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7bb…1cbfbacked No	73c	175$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.25	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+37%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x666f…d5d4backed No	50c	174.43$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.21	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f19…3aedbacked Yes	23c	170$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.2	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	-3.8wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8c8…fc4cbacked No	74c	169.01$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.1	43	39.5%17 W · 26 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will the Bills win the AFC Championship?this page
Will the Bengals win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Chargers win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Chiefs win the AFC Championship?Yes won
Will the Colts win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Dolphins win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Jaguars win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Jets win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Raiders win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Ravens win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Steelers win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Texans win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Titans win the AFC Championship?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the Bills win the AFC Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event